In this paper we discuss procedures for overcoming some of the problems involved in fitting autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting models to time series data, when the possibility of incorporating an instantaneous power transformation of the data into the analysis is contemplated. The
Moments of power transformed time series
โ Scribed by Richard W. Katz
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1999
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 94 KB
- Volume
- 10
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1180-4009
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
โฆ Synopsis
A simple recursion is presented for calculating moments (e.g., mean, variance, and autocorrelation function) of a time series that has been power transformed to normality. Its derivation is elementary, relying on the moment-generating function for a bivariate normal distribution. To make clear the distinction between the moments of the transformed and original time series, the special case of a squared normal process is treated in detail. The use of the recursion is illustrated through an environmental example, motivated by stochastic modeling of hourly precipitation, that involves both stabilization of variance and ampliยฎcation of autocorrelation.
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