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Models of the predictability of a simple nonlinear dynamical system

✍ Scribed by Manuel Pulido

Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2002
Tongue
English
Weight
775 KB
Volume
3
Category
Article
ISSN
1530-261X

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✦ Synopsis

Abstract

Chaotic nonlinear low order systems are often regarded as paradigms of the atmospheric behaviour, not least because of their limited predictability. In this paper, the predictability of a forced nonlinear system proposed by Lorenz is examined. The system is a compelling heuristic model of the mid‐latitude global circulation; it exhibits limited predictability. While weak error growth takes place throughout most of the phase space of the system, strong error growth is confined to very limited regions of phase space. A β€œdiscrete scattering” model of error growth is proposed. Copyright Β© 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

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