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Modelling uncertainty in long-term predictions of significant wave height

✍ Scribed by C. Guedes Soares; M. Scotto

Publisher: Elsevier Science
Year: 2001
Tongue: English
Weight: 134 KB
Volume: 28
Category: Article
ISSN: 0029-8018
DOI: 10.1016/s0029-8018(00)00011-1

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✦ Synopsis

This paper deals with the application of different methods to estimate the occurrences of high sea states. A case study of the Norwegian continental shelf is considered. The Annual Maxima Method and the Peak Over Threshold Method are used to obtain return values for 25, 50 and 100 years. Several parametric models are used to fit the long-term distribution of significant wave height and to obtain predictions of extremes values. It is shown that the prediction of these sea states depends very much on the tail behaviour of the fitted distribution.

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