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Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

✍ Scribed by Stéphane Dées; Pavlos Karadeloglou; Robert K. Kaufmann; Marcelo Sánchez

Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2007
Tongue
English
Weight
400 KB
Volume
35
Category
Article
ISSN
0301-4215

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✦ Synopsis

This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a ''price rule'' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices.

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