Modelling the ozone depletion, UV radiation and skin cancer rates for Australia
✍ Scribed by P. J. M. Koken; B. A. T. Willems; O. J. Vrieze; R. A. Frick
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1998
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 293 KB
- Volume
- 9
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1180-4009
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✦ Synopsis
Australia has a very sunny climate, the majority of the inhabitants are of Caucasian origin, and the country is situated close to the Antarctic with its appearing `ozone hole': thus the problem of ozone depletion is of great concern. The present article describes a model to estimate the future increase in melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer among the Australian population as a result of an increase in UV radiation, using four dierent scenarios for future stratospheric chlorine concentrations resulting in four dierent ozone depletion rates. For melanoma, enough data were available to calculate the increase in incidence rates for three dierent latitudinal zones within Australia, showing the dierences between the zones with their diverse climate conditions. Two of the four scenarios show a continuing increase in both melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer incidences as a result of ozone depletion. Towards the end of the simulation period a negative trend in the incidence rates for the two other scenarios starts to show. Furthermore dierences are found in the melanoma skin cancer incidences between the three zones speci®ed.