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Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

✍ Scribed by Tobias Rehrl; Rainer Friedrich

Publisher: Elsevier Science
Year: 2006
Tongue: English
Weight: 544 KB
Volume: 34
Category: Article
ISSN: 0301-4215
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.03.021

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✦ Synopsis

The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the pricedependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC.

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