Abstract
The potential for flooding and sediment transport is greatly affected by river channel form and changes in land use. Therefore the modelling of channel morphology prior to canalization and of land‐use change is important with respect to the prediction of floods and sediment yield and their consequences. A combination of land‐use transformation maps and soil properties shows certain decision rules for the conversion of forest into arable or vice versa. The model proposed, from this study, was used to simulate possible past and/or future channel and land‐use patterns. Subsequently, the outcome of this simulation was used to assess the risk of flooding, sediment transport and soil‐erosion under different conditions. In this study, channel morphology prior to canalization and land‐use change in the Ishikari basin, Hokkaido, Japan, were analysed by comparing three scenarios using a physical based channel and slope model. The results indicate that pre‐canalization channel morphology has a significant impact on flood peak, but no significant effect on sediment yield. In contrast, land‐use change has a significant effect on soil eroded from hillslopes, but no significant effect on flooding for Ishikari basin. This study also illustrates the challenges that a simple model, such as a physical based channel and slope model, can simulate large‐scale river basin processes using fewer hydrological data resources. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.