Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand: A Risk Management Perspective

✍ Scribed by Kevin Berk (auth.)

Publisher: Springer Spektrum
Year: 2015
Tongue: English
Leaves: 123
Series: BestMasters
Edition: 1
Category: Library

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Matter....Pages 1-16
Electricity market....Pages 5-9
Energy economy in enterprises....Pages 11-23
Time series analysis....Pages 25-52
A one factor model for medium-term load forecasting....Pages 53-83
Retail contract evaluation and pricing....Pages 85-89
MATLAB implementation....Pages 91-95
Conclusion and outlook....Pages 97-98
Back Matter....Pages 99-115

✦ Subjects

Energy Policy, Economics and Management; Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes; Energy Efficiency (incl. Buildings)

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