Abstract
Options researchers have argued that by averaging together implied standard deviations, or ISDs, calculated
from several options with the same expiry but different strikes, the noise in individual ISDs can be reduced,
yielding a better measure of the market's volatility expectation. Various options researchers have suggested
different weighting schemes for calculating these averages. In the forecasting literature, econometricians have
made the same argument but suggested quite different weighting schemes. Ignoring both literatures, commercial
vendors calculate ISD averages using their own weightings. We compare the averages proposed in both the options
and econometrics literatures and the averages used by major commercial vendors for the S&P 500 futures
options market. Although some averages forecast better than others, we find that the question of the best
weighting scheme is of secondary importance. More important is the fact that the ISDs are upward biased measures
of expected volatility. Fortunately, this bias is stable over time, so past bias patterns can be used to obtain
unbiased volatility forecasts. Once this is done, most ISD averages forecast better than time series and naive
models, and the differences between the averages produced by the various proposed weighting schemes are small.
ยฉ 2002 Wiley Publications, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:811โ837, 2002