## Abstract In examining stochastic models for commodity prices, central questions often revolve around time‐varying trend, stochastic convenience yield and volatility, and mean reversion. This paper seeks to assess and compare alternative approaches to modelling these effects, with focus on foreca
Mean Reversion and Basis Dynamics
✍ Scribed by Michael Theobald; Peter Yallup
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2001
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 275 KB
- Volume
- 21
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0270-7314
- DOI
- 10.1002/fut.1901
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Abstract
An analytical relationship between basis change autocorrelations and thin trading effects together with
partial adjustment factors is developed. Less than full price adjustments are demonstrated to lead to negative
autocorrelations in basis innovation series in addition to those induced by thin trading effects. Numerical and
empirical analyses explore the interrelationships between these effects and provide evidence for the presence of
both effects in intradaily cash and futures data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:
797–818, 2001
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