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Mathematical Elements of Attack Risk Analysis for Mountain Pine Beetles

✍ Scribed by JAMES POWELL; BRUCE KENNEDY; PETER WHITE; BARBARA BENTZ; JESSE LOGAN; DAVID ROBERTS

Publisher: Elsevier Science
Year: 2000
Tongue: English
Weight: 452 KB
Volume: 204
Category: Article
ISSN: 0022-5193
DOI: 10.1006/jtbi.2000.1080

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Three di!erent mathematical approaches are combined to develop a spatial framework in which risk of mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack on individual hosts may be assessed. A density-based partial di!erential equation model describes the dispersal and focusing behavior of MPB. A local projection onto a system of ordinary di!erential equations predicts the consequences of the density equations at individual hosts. The bifurcation diagram of these equations provides a natural division into categories of risk for each host. A stem-competition model links host vigor to stand age and demographics. Coupled together, these models illuminate spatial risk structures which may also shed light on the role of climatic variables in population outbreaks. Preliminary results suggest that stand microclimate has much greater in#uence on risk of attack than host vigor and stand age.

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