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Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions: Modelling, Statistical Inference, and Application to Business Cycle Analysis

✍ Scribed by Dr. Hans-Martin Krolzig (auth.)


Publisher
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Year
1997
Tongue
English
Leaves
369
Series
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 454
Edition
1
Category
Library

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✦ Synopsis


This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate ecoΒ­ nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational apΒ­ proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It conΒ­ sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner GraduierΒ­ tenkolleg Angewandte MikroΓΆkonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.

✦ Table of Contents


Front Matter....Pages i-xiv
In the last decade time series econometrics has changed dramatically. One increasingly prominent field has become the treatment of regime shifts and non-linear mod- elling strategies. While the importance ofregime shifts, particularly in macroeconometric systems, seems to be generally accepted, there is no established theory suggesting a unique approach for specifying econometric models that embed changes in regime.....Pages 1-5
The Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Model....Pages 6-28
The State-Space Representation....Pages 29-46
VARMA-Representation of MSI-VAR and MSM-VAR Processes....Pages 47-64
Forecasting MS-VAR Processes....Pages 65-76
The BLHK Filter....Pages 77-88
Maximum Likelihood Estimation....Pages 89-122
Model Selection and Model Checking....Pages 123-144
Multi-Move Gibbs Sampling....Pages 145-166
Comparative Analysis of Parameter Estimation in Particular MS-VAR Models....Pages 167-198
Extensions of the Basic MS-VAR Model....Pages 199-211
Markov-Switching Models of the German Business Cycle....Pages 213-258
Markov-Switching Models of Global and International Business Cycles....Pages 259-296
Cointegration Analysis of VAR Models with Markovian Shifts in Regime....Pages 297-328
Epilogue....Pages 329-330
Back Matter....Pages 331-357

✦ Subjects


Economic Theory; Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance


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