The environmental sustainability of the current global energy system is under serious question. A major transition away from fossil fuels to one based on energy efficiency and renewable energy is required.
The development of a wide range of renewable energy technologies is continuing at an impressive rate. Cost reductions have been real and impressive. With few exceptions however, the relative contribution of renewable energy to the total energy mix remains quite small in most countries. There are still a wide range of barriers preventing renewables from making a much more significant contribution.
The paper utilises a range of case studies from around the world which demonstrate some of the lessons of successful renewable energy implementation, and suggest a set of coordinated policies which would lead to a growing role for renewable energy in the commercial energy market.
KEYWORDS
Renewable Future; barriers; case studies; and replication
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF RENEWABLE ENERG Y
Fossil fuel combustion is the major source of greenhouse gas (OHG) emissions, largely in the form of carbon dioxide (CO~), accounting for 85 percent of current net anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (1). Over the past 50 years, fossil fuel consumption has increased fivefold, from approximately 57 exajoules in 1937 to around 282 exajoules in 1988 (2). Predominant among these fuels is the use of coal and oil, though natural gas use is projected to increase rapidly over the next few decades (3), (4). If fossil fuel consumption continues to grow, a doubling of pre-industrial CO 2 concentrations could occur as early as 2030, leading to a projected increase in the global average equilibrium temperature of 1.5 to 4.5Β°C (5).
In the past three years, a major international study under the auspices of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (6) has largely confirmed the previous findings of a range of scientific assessments that a continuation of current fossil fuel and deforestation trends will likely increase global temperatures to unprecedented levels. The IPCC calculated that it would take a reduction in global CO 2 emissions by 60 per cent to stabilise atmospheric concentrations. Given the likely increase in emissions from industrialising nations, this implies a near fossil fuel phase-out in OECD countries.