Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories

✍ Scribed by Edward E. Leamer (auth.)

Publisher: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Year: 2009
Tongue: English
Leaves: 359
Edition: 1
Category: Library

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

This book offers the wisdom and insight regarding the US economy from a well-known and distinguished econometrician who found himself first teaching macro economics to MBAs and then Directing the highly-regarded and widely-quoted UCLA/Anderson Forecast which provides quarterly forecasts for the US economy. Edward Leamer argues that "We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." He provides in this book the patterns and stories that are the basis for his understanding of what determines the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Matter....Pages i-xvi
Introduction: We Are Pattern-Seeking, Story-Telling Animals....Pages 3-16
Gross Domestic Product....Pages 19-38
The Components of GDP: C+I+G+X−M....Pages 39-50
Employment....Pages 51-64
Inflation and Interest Rates....Pages 65-90
Extrapolative Forecasting....Pages 91-100
Unwanted Idleness: Recessions and Recoveries....Pages 103-110
Recession Comparison Charts....Pages 111-122
Who Struggles and Who Does Well in Recessions?....Pages 123-135
Idleness Stories....Pages 139-153
Cycle Stories....Pages 155-171
Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDP....Pages 175-202
More Clues: Episodic Forecasting with Components of Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators....Pages 203-216
The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Data....Pages 219-229
In Search of Recession Causes....Pages 231-259
The Life Cycle of US Expansions: Sputters and Spurts....Pages 263-280
Savings and Investment....Pages 283-297
Government....Pages 299-312
The External Deficit and the Value of the Dollar Hu's in Charge?....Pages 313-328
The Ups and Downs of Real Estate Values: Can You Rely on Your Home To Pay For Your Retirement? ....Pages 329-353
Back Matter....Pages 355-359

✦ Subjects

Econometrics; Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance; Economic Growth

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