โ Scribed by Cordery, Ian
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
Strong relationships have been developed between a global parameter, the southern oscillation index (SOI), and a more local parameter, the geopotential height (GpH), in one season and precipitation in the next season. These relationships, which have only been examined for part of eastern Australia at this stage, explain \50% of the variance in one-season ahead precipitation for areas up to 500000 km 2 and \ 80% of the variance for smaller areas. The relationships, which are essentially simple linear regressions between precipitation in the target season and GpH or SOI in the previous season, apply when a third variable is in a particular range during the previous season. The success of this forecasting scheme is apparent in all four seasons of the year. This form of forecasting, which is based on the partitioning of observed data, has the potential to provide reliable 3-months ahead forecasts of precipitation for large regions.
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