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Local recent changes in extreme air temperature

✍ Scribed by A. Palumbo; A. Mazzarella

Publisher
Springer
Year
1984
Tongue
English
Weight
343 KB
Volume
6
Category
Article
ISSN
0165-0009

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✦ Synopsis

Daily minimum and maximum air temperatures recorded in Naples and in surrounding areas have been analysed in order to set up a statistical model for investigating climatic changes of extreme air temperature. We have analysed on various time-scales the mean values of minimum air temperature lower than the 10th percentile (Tminlo) and the mean values of the maximum air temperature greater than the 90th percentile (Tmaxgo). The results have shown for the city: (i) a significant secular trend both for yearly Tminlo and Tmax90, mostly due to the process of urbanization, that is also responsible for (ii) the ascertained change in the character of the annual cycle, (iii) a reasonable ability to forecast winter Tminlo and summer Tmaxg0 in statistical terms rising a markovian model, and (iv) a significant 11-yr cycle with an amplitude of 0.5 ~ directly related to solar activity which has never been succesfully determined before.

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