Landslide Risk Assessment
Contents
Preface to the first edition
Preface to the second edition
Scientific notation
Chapter 1
Background to landslide risk assessment
1.1. Introduction
1.2. What is risk?
1.2.1 Financial risk
1.2.2 Risk and safety
1.2.3 Risk, exposure and health
1.2.4 Risk as uncertain outcomes
1.2.5 Risk and damaging events
1.3. A view of risk
1.4. Black Swans and Perfect Storms
1.5. What is landslide risk?
1.6. Hazard and vulnerability
1.6.1 Geohazards, environmental hazards and disasters
Figure 1.1
1.7. From hazard to risk
Figure 1.2
1.8. Categories of risk
1.9. Why do landslide risk assessment?
References
Aleotti P, Baldelli P and Polloni G (2000)
AGS (Australian Geomechanics Society) (2000)
AGS (2007a)
AGS (2007b)
AGS (2007c)
AGS (2007d)
Beck U (1992)
Bernstein PL (1996)
Besson L, Durville JL, Garry G et al. (1999)
BSI (1991)
Burton I and Kates RW (1964)
Canada (2007)
Cardinali M, Reichenbach P, Guzzetti F, Ardizzone F, Antonini G, Galli M, Cacciano M, Castellani M and Salvati P. (2002)
Carrara A (1983)
Catanach AH Jr and Ragatz JA (2010)
Cave PW (1992)
Chicken JC and Posner T (1998)
Coburn A and Spence R (1992)
Couture R (2011a)
Couture R (2011b)
Cutter SL (1993)
DRM (Délégation aux risques majeurs) (1990)
Eusebio A, Grasso P, Mahtab A and Morino A (1996)
Evans SG, Cruden DM, Bobrowsky PT et al. (2005)
Evans TG, Usher N and Moore R (2007)
Fannin RJ, Moore GD, Schwab JW and VanDine DF (2005)
Garry G and Graszk E (1997)
Giddens A (1999)
Graszk E and Toulemont M (1996)
Hall JW, Lee EM and Meadowcroft IC (2000)
Hand D (2000)
Ho KKS and Lau JWC (2010)
Ho K, Leroi E and Roberds B (2000)
HSE (Health and Safety Executive) (2001)
Holton GA (2004)
ISO (International Standardization Organization) (2009)
ISSMGE (International Society of Soil Mechanics and Ground Engineering) (2004)
Jeanjean P, Hill A and Taylor S (2003)
Jones DKC (1993)
Jones DKC (1995a)
Jones DKC (1995b)
Junger S (1997)
Kates RW (1978)
Knight FH (1921)
Kohler A, Julich S and Bloemertz L (2004)
Lateltin OJ (2002)
Lee EM and Charman JH (2005)
Lee EM, Brunsden D and Sellwood M (2000)
Lee EM, Hall JW and Meadowcroft IC (2001)
Leroi E, Bonnard C, Fell R and McInnes R (2005)
Leventhal AR and Walker BF (2005a)
Leventhal AR and Walker BF (2005b)
Luhmann N (1996)
Morgenstern NR (1991)
Morgenstern NR (2000)
Nadim F, Kvalstad TJ and Guttormsen T (2005)
Ng KC, Parry S, King JP, Franks CAM and Shaw R (2002)
Normile D (2012)
OFAT/OFEE/OFEFP (Office fédéral de l’aménagement du territoire/Office fédéral de l’économie des eaux/Office fédéral de l’environnement, des forêts et du paysage) (1997)
Paté-Cornell E (2012)
Perry AH (1981)
Petley DN, Hearn GJ, Hart A, Rosser NJ, Dunning SA, Oven KJ and Mitchell WA (2007)
Porter M and Morgenstern N (2012)
Purdy G (2010)
Royal Society (1992)
Sapolsky H (1990)
Scottish Executive (2006)
Sjöberg L (ed.) (1987)
Solheim A, Bryn P, Berg K, Sejrup HP and Mienert J (2005)
Sorriso-Valvo M (2004)
Stein S, Geller RJ and Liu M (2012)
Sunuwar L, Karkee MB and Shrestha D (2005)
Taleb NN (2010)
UNISDR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) (2009)
United States Department of Defence (2002)
VanDine DF (2012)
VanDine DF, Jordan P and Boyer DC (2002)
Varnes DJ (1984)
Whitman RV (1984)
Whitman RV (1997)
Wise M, Moore G and VanDine D (2004)
Wong HN and Ho K (2000)
Chapter 2 The basic elements of landslide risk assessment
2.1. Introduction: the risk assessment process
Figure 2.1
2.2. Description of intention
2.3. Hazard assessment
Figure 2.2
Figure 2.3
2.4. Consequence assessment
Figure 2.4
Figure 2.5
2.5. Risk estimation
Figure 2.6
2.6. Risk assessment and its relationship to risk evaluation and risk management
2.7. Risk perception and risk communication
Table 2.1
Figure 2.7
2.8. Landslide risk assessment procedures
2.9. Risk assessment as a decision-making tool
Figure 2.8
2.10. Structure of the book
References
Adams J (1995)
AGS (Australian Geomechanics Society) (2000)
BP (2008)
Bromhead EN (2005)
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DoE (Department of the Environment) (1995)
Douglas M and Wildavsky A (1983)
DTLR (Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions) (2002)
Gould LC, Gardiner GT, De Luca DR, Tiemann AR, Dobb LW and Stolwijk JAJ (1988)
Hartford DND (2009)
Holling CS (1979)
Holling CS (1986)
Hood C and Jones DKC (eds) (1996)
HSE (Health and Safety Executive) (2006)
IPCC (Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007)
IPCC (2012)
Kasperson RE and Stallen PM (eds) (1991)
Kasperson RE and Kasperson JX (1996)
Lee EM and Charman JH (2005)
Léone F, Aste JP and Leroi E (1996)
Lewis S and Hurst S (2005)
Lichtenstein S, Slovic P, Fischhoff B, Laymen M and Combs B (1978)
Lofstedt RE and Frewer L (eds) (1998)
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Pearce D, Atkinson G and Mourato S (2006)
Royal Society (1983)
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Schwarz M and Thompson M (1990)
Slovic P (2000)
Slovic P, Fischhoff B and Lichtenstein S (1980)
Starr C (1969)
Stern PC and Fineberg HV (eds) (1996)
Thompson M, Ellis R and Wildavsky A (1990)
Vinnem JE (2007)
Wong HN, Ho KKS and Chan YC (1997)
Chapter 3
Landslide hazard
3.1. Introduction
Figure 3.1
3.2. Landslide mechanisms and type
Figure 3.2
Figure 3.2 continued
Table 3.1
3.3. Landslide behaviour
Figure 3.3
Figure 3.4
3.4. Potential for landsliding
Table 3.2
Table 3.3
3.5. Landslide velocity
Table 3.4
3.6. Landslide travel distance
Figure 3.5
Figure 3.6
Figure 3.7
Table 3.5
3.7. Nature of landslide hazards
3.7.1 Pre-failure hazards
3.7.2 Main-phase hazards
Figure 3.8
Table 3.6
3.7.3 Secondary hazards
Table 3.7
3.7.4 Post-event hazards as the system returns to stability
3.7.5 Landslide reactivation hazards
Figure 3.9
Figure 3.10
3.8. Landslide intensity
Table 3.8
Figure 3.11
Figure 3.12
Table 3.9
Table 3.10
3.9. Landslide susceptibility and hazard zoning
Table 3.11
Table 3.12
Figure 3.13
3.10. Hazard models
3.11. Uncertainty, assurance and defensibility
Figure 3.14
Figure 3.15
Figure 3.16
References
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Chapter 4
Qualitative and semi-quantitative risk
assessment
4.1. Introduction
Table 4.1
4.2. Risk registers
Example 4.1
Figure 4.1
4.3. Relative risk scoring
Table 4.2
Example 4.2
Table 4.3
Table 4.4
Figure 4.2
Example 4.3
Table 4.5
Example 4.4
Table 4.6
Table 4.7
4.4. Risk ranking matrices
Example 4.5
Table 4.8
Table 4.9
Table 4.10
Table 4.11
Table 4.12
Table 4.13
Table 4.14
Table 4.15
Table 4.16
Table 4.17
Example 4.6
Table 4.18
4.5. The FMECA approach
Table 4.19
Figure 4.3
Table 4.20
Table 4.21
Table 4.22
Example 4.7
Table 4.23
Figure 4.4
Table 4.24
4.6. Qualitative risk assessment: an easy option?
Table 4.25
References
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Hughes A, Hewlett H, Samuels PG, Morris M, Sayers P, Moffat I, Harding A and Tedd P (2000)
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Lee EM (1999)
Lee EM (2003)
Lee EM and Clark AR (2000)
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Ng KC, Parry S, King JP, Franks CAM and Shaw R (2002)
Parry S, Ruse ME and Ng KC (2006)
Pierson LA, Davis SA and Van Vickle R (1990)
Powell G (2002)
Rendel Geotechnics (1994)
Saldivar-Sali A and Einstein HH (2007)
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Stewart IE, Baynes FJ and Lee IK (2002)
VanDine DF, Jordan P and Boyer DC (2002)
Wong HN and Ho KKS (1995)
Wong HN (2001)
Wong HN (2003)
Wong HN (2005)
Wong HN and Ko FWY (2006)
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Chapter 5
Introduction to probability and quantitative
assessment
5.1. Uncertainty and probability
5.1.1 Uncertainty
5.1.2 Probability and probability rules
Figure 5.1
Figure 5.2
5.1.3 The meaning of probability
5.1.4 The frequentist interpretation
Figure 5.3
Table 5.1
Table 5.2
Figure 5.4
5.1.5 The ‘degree of belief' interpretation
5.1.6 Probability interpretations for landslide risk assessment
5.2. Probability distributions
5.2.1 The binomial distribution (yes/no events with a given probability)
Figure 5.5
Table 5.3
5.2.2 The Poisson distribution (events that occur independently with a given rate)
Figure 5.6
Figure 5.7
Table 5.4
Figure 5.8
5.2.3 Continuous probability distributions
Figure 5.9
5.2.4 Fat-tailed distributions and power laws
Figure 5.10
Figure 5.11
Figure 5.12
5.2.5 Landslide magnitude-frequency distributions
Figure 5.13
Figure 5.14
Figure 5.15
5.2.6 Return periods and exceedence probability
Figure 5.16
Table 5.5
Table 5.6
Table 5.7
Table 5.8
5.3. Judgement and the use of experts
5.3.1 Expert judgement
Figure 5.17
Figure 5.18
5.3.2 The need for expert panels and their operation
Figure 5.19
Figure 5.20
Table 5.9
5.4. Probability assessment and reliability methods
5.4.1 The use of landslide statistics
Table 5.10
5.4.2 The use of conceptual models, event trees and fault trees
Figure 5.21
Figure 5.22
Figure 5.23
Figure 5.24
Figure 5.25
5.4.3 The use of reliability methods
Figure 5.26
Figure 5.27
Table 5.11
Figure 5.28
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Wieczorek GF, Larsen MC, Eaton LS, Morgan BA and Blair JL (2001)
Wu TH, Tang WH and Einstein HH (1996)
Yu YF and Mostyn GR (1996)
Chapter 6
Estimating the probability of landsliding
6.1. Introduction
Figure 6.1
6.2. Approaches to estimating landslide probability
6.3. Statistical methods: the use of incident databases
Table 6.1
Example 6.1: The TransCanada Pipeline
Table 6.2
Example 6.2: Papua New Guinea
Table 6.3
6.4. Statistical methods: historical frequency assessment
Example 6.3: Scarborough Cliffs, UK
Figure 6.2
Example 6.4: Argillite Cut, British Columbia, Canada
6.5. Statistical methods: the use of landslide magnitude-frequency curves
Example 6.5: Flow slides in the South Wales Coalfield, UK
Table 6.4
Table 6.5
Figure 6.3
Example 6.6: Submarine landslides in the West Nile Delta, Egypt
Figure 6.4
Table 6.6
Table 6.7
6.6. Statistical methods: estimating landslide exceedence probability
Example 6.7: City of Seattle, USA
Example 6.8: Umbria, Italy
Table 6.8
Table 6.9
Table 6.10
Table 6.11
6.7. Statistical methods: estimating probability of cliff recession through simulation models
Example 6.9: Sussex cliffs, UK
Figure 6.5
Figure 6.6
Table 6.12
Table 6.13
6.8. Conceptual models: normalisation of base-rate frequency
Example 6.10: Berkely Escarpment, Vancouver, Canada
Table 6.14
Example 6.11: Cut-slope failures, Hong Kong
Table 6.15
Table 6.16
Table 6.17
Table 6.17b
Table 6.17c
Table 6.17d
Table 6.17e
Table 6.18
6.9. Conceptual models: estimating probability from landslide-triggering events
Table 6.19
Example 6.12: Alborz Mountains, Iran
Example 6.13: Ventnor, Isle of Wight, UK
Figure 6.7
Table 6.20
Example 6.14: North Island, New Zealand
Example 6.15: San Andreas Fault, California, USA
Figure 6.8
Table 6.21
Figure 6.9
Table 6.22
6.10. Conceptual models: estimating probability through expert judgement
Table 6.23
Table 6.24
Example 6.16: Storfjord, Norway
Table 6.25
Figure 6.10
Table 6.26
Example 6.17: Caucasus Pipeline, Georgia
Figure 6.11
Table 6.27
Figure 6.12
Figure 6.13
Table 6.28
Example 6.18: Lyme Regis, UK
Figure 6.14
Figure 6.15
6.11. Reliability methods: estimating probability through use of probabilistic stability analysis
Example 6.19: Whitby, UK
Example 6.20: Mad Dog and Atlantis, Gulf of Mexico, USA
Figure 6.16
Example 6.21: Lushan, Taiwan
Table 6.29
Table 6.30
6.12. Estimating probability: precision or pragmatism?
References
Anda E and Blikra L (1998)
AGS (Australian Geomechanics Society) (2000)
Berberian M (1994)
Bishop AW (1955)
Bishop AW, Hutchinson JN, Penman ADM and Evans HE (1969)
Bjerrum L and Jørstad F (1968)
Brand EW and Hudson RR (1982)
Bromhead EN (1986)
Bromhead EN, Hopper AC and Ibsen ML (1998)
Brunsden D and Lee EM (2004)
Bunce C, Cruden DM and Morgenstern NR (1997)
Casale R and Margottini C (eds) (1995)
Chaytor JD, ten Brink US, Solow AR and Andrews BD (2009)
Chen AY and Morgenstern NR (1983)
Clark AR and Guest S (1991)
Clark AR and Guest S (1994)
Clark AR, Fort DS and Davis GM (2000)
Clements M (1994)
Coe JA, Michael JA, Crovelli RA and Savage WZ (2000)
Corominas J and Moya J (1996)
Cox DR (1962)
Crovelli RA (2000)
Crozier MJ (1986)
Crozier MJ and Glade T (1999)
Crozier MJ and Preston NJ (1998)
Damgaard JS and Peet AH (1999)
Dimmock P, Mackenzie B and Mills A (2012)
Ducassou E, Migeon S, Mulder T, Murat A, Capotondis L, Bernasconi SM and Mascle J (2009)
Duncan JM (1996a)
Duncan JM (1996b)
Eidsvig UK, Lacasse S, Nadim F and Høeg K (2008)
Essex C, Lookman T and Nererberg MRH (1987)
Evans SG, Guthrie RH, Roberts NJ and Bishop NF (2007)
Evans TG, Usher N and Moore R (2007)
Fell R, Finlay P and Mostyn G (1996a)
Fell R, Walker BF and Finlay PJ (1996b)
Finlay PJ and Fell R (1995)
Fort D S, Clark AR and Savage DT (2000)
Geological Engineering Office (GEO) (1996)
Glade T (1996)
Glade T (1997)
Glade T (1998)
Glade T and Crozier MJ (1996)
Graham J (1984)
Guthrie RH (2009)
Guthrie RH and Evans SG (2004a)
Guthrie RH and Evans SG (2004b)
Guzzetti F (2005)
Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P, Ardizzone F, Cardinali M and Galli M (2005)
Guzzetti F, Galli M, Reichenbach P, Ardizzone F and Cardinali M (2006)
Haeeri SM, Sttari S and Sammiee A (1993)
Halcrow Group (2003)
Hall JW, Meadowcroft IC, Lee EM and van Gelder PHAJM (2002)
Hallet B (1987)
Harp EL (1997)
Hawley JG (1984)
High Point Rendel (1996)
High Point Rendel (1999)
High Point Rendel (2003)
Huang JC, Chang YT, Yen CY, Huang SC and Huang JK (2008)
Hungr O (1997)
Hutchinson JN (1962)
Hutchinson JN (1988)
Jeanjean P, Hill A and Taylor S (2003)
Jones DKC (1992)
Keefer DK (1984)
Keystone (2009)
Koirala NP and Watkins AT (1988)
Kovach RL (1995)
Kuloshvili SI and Maisuradze GM (2000)
Lacasse S and Nadim F (2006)
Lacasse S and Nadim F (2011)
Lacasse S, Eidsvik U, Nadim F, Høeg K and Blikra LH (2008)
Lee EM (1992)
Lee EM (1998)
Lee EM (1999)
Lee EM (2003)
Lee EM (2007)
Lee EM (2009)
Lee EM and Charman JH (2005)
Lee EM and Clark AR (2000)
Lee EM and Clark AR (2002)
Lee EM and Moore R (1991)
Lee EM and Moore R (2007)
Lee EM and Sellwood M (2002)
Lee EM, Clark AR and Guest S (1998a)
Lee EM, Moore R and McInnes RG (1998b)
Lee EM, Brunsden D and Sellwood M (2000)
Lee EM, Hall JW and Meadowcroft IC (2001)
Lee EM, Meadowcroft IC, Hall JW and Walkden MJ (2002)
Lee YF and Chi YY (2011)
Lee YF, Lee DH and Chi YY (2009)
Meadowcroft I, Brampton A and Hall J (1997)
Moore R, Lee EM and Clark AR (1995)
Moore R, Usher N and Evans T (2007)
Mousavi SM, Omidvar B, Ghazban F and Feyzi R (2011)
Nadim F (2006)
Nadim F and Locat J (2005)
Nadim F, Krunic D and Jeanjean P (2003)
Nadim F, Einstein H and Roberds W (2005)
Nash D (1987)
Niedoroda A, Reed C, Hatchett L, Young A and Kasch V (2003)
Orange D, Angell M, Brand J, Thompson J, Buddin T, Williams M, Hart B and Berger B (2003)
Penman ADM (2000)
PHSMSA (2010)
Porter M, Jacob M, Savigny KW, Fougere S and Morgenstern N (2007)
Radbruch-Hall DH, Colton RB, Davies WE, Lucchitta I, Skipp BA and Varnes DJ (1982)
Reeder MS, Rothwell RG, Stow DAV, Kahler G and Kenyon NH (1998)
Reeder MS, Stow DAV and Rothwell RG (2002)
Reid ME (1994)
Rendel Geotechnics (1994)
Roberds WL (1990)
Schofield J (1787)
Schrott L and Pasuto A (eds) (1999)
Schuster RL (ed.) (1991)
Sellwood M, Davis GM, Brunsden D and Moore R (2000)
Siddle HJ, Wright MD and Hutchinson JN (1996)
Siddle HJ, Wright MD and Hutchinson JN (2000)
Sweeney M, Gasca AH, Garcia-Lopez M and Palmer AC (2005)
Tatashidze ZK, Tsereteli ED and Khazaradze RD (2000)
ten Brink US, Giest EL and Andrews BD (2006)
Terlien MJM (1996)
Terlien MJM, De Louw PGB, Van Asch TWJ and Hetterschijt RAA (1996)
Van Asch TWJ, Buma J and Van Beek LPH (1999)
Voight B, Glicken H, Jandra RL and Douglass PM (1981)
Weinberg GM (1975)
Whittaker M (1984)
Chapter 7
Exposure
7.1. Introduction
7.2. Spatial probability: stationary assets
Example 7.1
Example 7.2
Example 7.3
Figure 7.1
Example 7.4
Example 7.5
7.3. Spatial and temporal probability: non-stationary assets
Example 7.6
Example 7.7
Example 7.8
Example 7.9
Example 7.10
Example 7.11
7.4. Occupancy and population models
Example 7.12
Table 7.1
Example 7.13
7.5. Reducing exposure through landslide detection
Example 7.14
Figure 7.2
References
Australian Geomechanics Society (AGS) (2000)
AGS (2007)
Cheung SPY, Wong MC and Yeung LHY (2006)
Dimmock P, Mackenzie B and Mills AJ (2012)
Fell R, Ho KKS, Lacasse S and Leroi E (2005)
Geotechnical Engineering Office (GEO) (2009)
Hendrickx M, Wilson RA, Moon AT, Stewart I and Flentje P (2011)
Ho K, Leroi E and Roberds B (2000)
Jones DKC, Lee EM, Hearn G and Genc S (1989)
Lee EM and Moore R (2007)
Moore R, Usher N and Evans T (2007)
Morgan GC, Rawlings GE and Sobkowicz JC (1992)
Roberds W (2005)
Wilson RA, Moon AT, Hendrickx M and Stewart IE (2005)
Chapter 8
Vulnerability
8.1. Introduction: multiple meanings of vulnerability
8.2. Physical vulnerability
8.3. Physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure
Table 8.1
Table 8.2
Table 8.3
Table 8.4
Figure 8.1
Example 8.1
Table 8.5
Example 8.2
Figure 8.2
Table 8.6
Example 8.3
8.4. Human vulnerability
Table 8.7
Table 8.8
Example 8.4
Table 8.9
Example 8.5
8.5. Societal and social vulnerability
Table 8.10
Figure 8.3
Table 8.11
8.6. Societal and social vulnerability in landslide risk assessment
References
Adger WN (2006)
Australian Geomechanics Society (AGS) (2000)
AGS (2007)
Alexander DE (1989)
Alexander DE (2000)
Alexander DE (2002)
Alexander DE (2005)
Amatruda G, Bonnard Ch, Castelli M, Forlati F, Giacomelli L, Morelli M, Paro L, Piana F, Pirulli M, Polino R, Prat P, Ramasco M, Scavia C, Bellardone G, Campus S, Durville J-L, Poisel R, Preh A, Roth W and Tentschert EH (2004)
Anderson MB (2000)
Bankoff G, Frerks G and Hilhorst D (2004)
Bateman, I, Carson, RT, Day B, Hanemann WM, Hanley N, Hett T, Jones-Lee M, Loomes G, Mourato S, Ozdemiroglu E and Pearce DW (2002)
Baxter PJ (1990)
Benson C and Clay EJ (2004)
Bell R and Glade T (2004)
Birkmann J (ed.) (2006)
Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I and Wisner B (1994)
Blöchl A and Braun B (2005)
Buckle P (2006)
Cannon T (1993)
Cannon T (2000)
Cardinali M, Reichenbach P, Guzzetti F, Ardizzone F, Antonini G, Galli M, Cacciano M, Castellani M and Salvati P (2002)
Chen CC, Yeh TL, Yang YK et al. (2001)
Coburn A and Spence R (1992)
Cruden DM (1997)
Cutter SL (1996)
Cutter SL, Boruff BJ and Shirley WL (2003)
Cutter SL, Barnes L, Berry M et al. (2008)
Cutter SL and Emrich CT (2006)
Dai FC, Lee CF and Ngai YY (2002)
DNV Technica (1996)
Douglas J (2007)
Duzgun HSB and Lacasse S (2005)
DTLR (Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions) (2002)
ENSURE (2009)
EPFL (Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne) (2002)
Fell R (1994)
Fell R and Hartford D (1997)
Finlay PJ, Mostyn GR and Fell R (1999)
Galderisi A, Ceudech A, Ferrara FF and Profice AS (2010)
Galli M and Guzzetti F (2007)
Glade T (2003)
Glade T and Crozier MJ (2005)
Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, Ardizzone F and Galli M (2003)
Halcrow Asia Partnership (1999)
Hewitt K (1997)
High Point Rendel (2004)
High Point Rendel (2005)
Hill A and Cutter SL (2001)
Holcombe E, Smith S, Wright E and Anderson MG (2012)
IFRC (2008)
IISD et al. (2009)
ISSMGE (2004)
Jones DKC (1992)
Li Z, Nadim F, Huang H, Uzielli M and Lacasse S (2010)
National Research Council (2006)
Oven KJ (2009)
Parker D and Tapsell S (2009)
Papathoma-Köhle M, Neuhauser B, Ratzinger K, Wenzel H and Dominey-Howes D (2007)
Pearce D, Atkinson G and Mourato S (2006)
Peduzzi P, Dao H, Herold C and Mouton F (2009)
Peek-Asa C, Ramirez M, Shoaf K and Seligson H (2002)
Petley DN, Hearn GJ, Hart A et al. (2007)
Roberds W (2005)
Romang H, Kienholz H, Kimmerle R and Böll A (2003)
Salvati P, Bianchi C and Guzzetti F (2006)
Sassa K (1992)
Tapsell S, McCarthy S, Faulkner H and Alexander M (2010)
Timmerman P (1981)
UN (2011)
UN Development Programme (2003)
UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (2009)
Uzielli M, Nadim F, Lacasse S and Kaynia AM (2008)
Van Aalst MK, Helmer M, de Jong C, Monasso F, van Sluis E and Suarez P (2007)
Van Westen CJ, Van Asch TWJ and Soeters R (2006)
Voight B (1990)
Volkwein A, Schellenberg K, Labiouse V, Agliardi F, Berger F Bourrier F, Dorren LKA, Gerber W and Jaboyedoff M (2011)
Willows RI and Connell RK (eds) (2003)
Wilson RA, Moon AT, Hendrickx M and Stewart IE (2005)
Wisner B, Blaikie P, Cannon T and Davis I (2004)
World Bank (2010)
Zêzere JL, Garcia RAC, Oliveira SC and Reis E (2007)
Chapter 9
Estimating the consequences
9.1. Introduction
Figure 9.1
9.2. Elements at risk
9.3. Using the historical record
9.4. Categories of adverse consequences
9.5. Loss of life and injury
Table 9.1
9.6. Direct impact on buildings, structures and infra-structure (direct economic costs/losses)
9.7. Other economic costs that may be estimated in advance
9.8. Intangible losses
9.9. Uncertain consequences
9.10. Consequence models
Table 9.2
Table 9.3
Table 9.4
Table 9.5
Example 9.1
Table 9.6
Example 9.2
Figure 9.2
Table 9.7
Table 9.8
Example 9.3
Table 9.9
Example 9.4
Example 9.5
Example 9.6
Table 9.10
Table 9.11
Figure 9.3
Table 9.12
Table 9.13
Example 9.7
Table 9.14
9.11. Multiple-outcome consequence models
Example 9.8
Table 9.15
Figure 9.4
Example 9.9
Figure 9.5
Figure 9.6
Example 9.10
Figure 9.7
9.12. Complex outcomes and uncertain futures
References
Abelson P (2007)
Adams WC (1986)
Alexander DE (1989)
Alexander DE (2002)
Alexander DE (2005)
Alfors JT, Burnett JL and Gay TE (1973)
Australian Government (2008)
Bacon J and Bacon S (1988)
Bateman I, Carson RT, Day B, Hanemann WM, Hanley N, Hett T, Jones-Lee M, Loomes G, Mourato S, Ozdemiroglu E and Pearce DW (2002)
Bellavance F, Dionne G and Lebeau M (2009)
Bishop AW, Hutchinson JN, Penman AD M and Evans HE (1969)
Bucknam RC (2001)
Building Research Establishment (1981)
Bunce C, Cruden DM and Morgenstern NR (1997)
Cardinali M, Reichenbach P, Guzzetti F, Ardizzone F, Antonini G, Galli M, Cacciano M, Castellani M and Salvati P (2002)
Carrara A and Merenda L (1976)
Carreno R and Bonnard C (1999)
Catenacci V (1992)
Chan RKS (2000)
Coburn A and Spence R (1992)
Cory J and Sopinka J (1989)
Crescenti U (1986)
Crozier MJ (1986)
Davies WN and Christie HD (1996)
Del Prete M and Petley DJ (1982)
Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions (2002)
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
ERM-Hong Kong (1999)
Evans NC and King JP (1998)
Evans NC, Huang SW and King JP (1997)
Fell R, Ho KKS, Lacasse S and Leroi E (2005)
Fulton ARG, Jones DKC and Lazzari S (1987)
Gardner T (1754)
Gazzetta Ufficiale della Repubblica Italiana (1998)
Gill J (2011)
Godt JW and Savage WZ (1999)
Gokceoglu C, Sonmez H, Nefeslioglu H, Duman TY and Can T (2005)
Government of Hong Kong (1972a)
Government of Hong Kong (1972b)
Griffiths JS, Hutchinson JN, Brunsden D, Petely DJ and Fookes PG (2004)
Guzzetti F (2000)
Halcrow Asia Partnership (1999)
Hand D (2000)
Harp EL and Jibson RL (1995)
Harp EL and Jibson RL (1996)
Harp EL, Jibson RL and Wieczorek GF (1981)
Health and Safety Executive (2001)
Hendron AJ Jr and Patton FD (1985)
Herd DG and the Comite de Estudios Vulcanologies (1986)
Hewitt K (1997)
Highways Agency (1997)
Ho K, Leroi E and Roberds B (2000)
Ikeya H (1976)
International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (1999)
International Pacific Salmon Fisheries Commission (1980)
Jibson RW (1992)
Jibson RW (2006)
Jones DKC (1992)
Jones DKC (1995)
Jones DKC and Lee EM (1994)
Jones DKC, Lee EM, Hearn G and Genc S (1989)
Jones-Lee MW (1989)
Keefer DK (1984)
Keefer DK (2002)
Kiersch GA (1964)
King JP (1997)
King JP (1999)
Kingdon-Ward J (1952)
Kingdon-Ward J (1955)
Lacey GN (1972)
Lin CW, Shieh C-L, Yuan B-D, Shieh Y-C, Liu S-H and Lee S-Y (2003)
Lipman PW and Mullineaux D (eds) (1981)
Lotter M, Charman JH, Lee EM, Hengesh JV, Shilston DT and Poscher G (2005)
McIntyre T (2005)
Malone AW (1998)
Marin A (1992)
Mathers C, Vos T and Stevenson C (1999)
Miller J (1974)
Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (1993)
Mooney GM (1977)
Murray JG (2000)
Nieto AS and Schuster RL (1999)
OECD (2011)
Olser T (1993)
O’Riordan NJ and Milloy CJ (1995)
Parker DJ, Green CH and Thompson PM (1987)
Pearce DW, Cline WR, Achanta AN, Fankhauser S, Pachauri RK, Tol RSJ and Vellinga P (1995)
Pearce D, Atkinson G and Mourato S (2006)
Peek-Asa C, Ramirez M, Shoaf K and Seligson H (2002)
Penning-Rowsell EC, Green CH, Thompson PM, Coker AM, Tunstall SM, Richards C and Parker DJ (1992)
Pethick JS (1996)
Petley DN (2012)
Petley DN, Dunning SA and Rosser NJ (2005)
Plafker G and Ericksen GE (1978)
Pradham EK, West KP Jr, Katz J, LeClerq SC, Khatry SK and Shrestha SR (2007)
Regione Basilicata (1987)
Rozier IT and Reeves MJ (1979)
San Francisco Chronicle (1983)
Sanchez C, Lee TS, Batts D, Benjamin J and Malilay J (2009)
Sapir DG and Misson C (1992)
Sassa K, Fukuoka, H and Carreno R (2009)
Schuster RL (1983)
Schuster RL and Fleming RW (1986)
Shilston DT, Lee EM, Pollos-Pirallo S, Morgan D, Clarke J, Fookes PG and Brunsden D (2005)
Smallwood ARH, Morley RS, Hardingham AD, Ditchfield C and Castleman J (1997)
Smith K (2001)
Stalin Benitez A (1989)
Suleman MS, N’Jai A, Green CH and Penning-Rowsell EC (1988)
Tavenas F, Chagnon JY and LaRochelle P (1971)
Taype V (1979)
Ulusay R, Aydan O and Kilic R (2007)
University of Utah (1984)
US Geological Survey (1989)
USAID (2000)
Valentin H (1954)
Van Westen CJ, Van Asch TWJ and Soeters R (2006)
Viscusi W (2003)
Walkinshaw J (1992)
Wang WN, Wu HL, Nakamura H, Wu S-C, Ouyang S and Yu M-F (2003)
Wieczorek GF, Larsen MC, Eaton LS, Morgan BA and Blair JL (2001)
Wong HN and Ho KKS (1996)
Wong HN, Ho KKS and Chan YC (1997)
Yoshimatsu H (1999)
Chapter 10
Quantifying risk
10.1. Introduction
10.2. Current annual risk
Example 10.1
Example 10.2
Figure 10.1
Table 10.1
Example 10.3
Figure 10.2
Table 10.2
Example 10.4
Table 10.3
Table 10.4
Figure 10.3
Figure 10.4
10.3. Cliff recession risk
Figure 10.5
Table 10.5
Figure 10.6
Example 10.5
Table 10.6
Example 10.6
Table 10.7
10.4. Comparing the risks associated with different management options
Example 10.7
Example 10.8
Table 10.8
Example 10.9
Table 10.9
Table 10.10
Example 10.10
Figure 10.7
10.5. Individual risk
Table 10.11
Table 10.12
Figure 10.8
Table 10.13
Example 10.11
Table 10.14
Example 10.12
Table 10.15
Example 10.13
10.6. Societal risk
Example 10.14
Table 10.16
Figure 10.9
Example 10.15
Table 10.17
Figure 10.10
Example 10.16
Table 10.18
10.7. Statistics are signs from God?
Table 10.19
References
Bedford T and Cooke RM (2001)
Bottelberghs PH (2000)
Brighton and Hove City Council (2006)
Bunce C, Cruden DM and Morgenstern NR (1997)
ERM-Hong Kong (1998a)
ERM-Hong Kong (1998b)
ERM-Hong Kong (1999)
Fell R and Hartford D (1997)
Ford R (2000)
Hall JW, Lee EM and Meadowcroft IC (2000)
Health and Safety Executive (HSE) (1992)
Ho K, Leroi E and Roberds B (2000)
IChemE (Institution of Chemical Engineers) (1992)
Kauer R, Fabbri L, Giribone R and Heerings J (2002)
Knights D and Vurdubakis T (1993)
Lee EM and Clark AR (2002)
MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food) (1993)
National Research Council (1989)
Pethick JS and Leggett D (1993)
Plough A and Krimsky S (1987)
Royal Society (1992)
Siegal K and Gibson WC (1988)
Slovic P, Fischhoff B and Lichtenstein S (1980)
Spouge J (1999)
Sterling GH and Strobeck EE (1973)
Stern PC and Fineberg HV (eds) (1996)
Valentin H (1954)
Vinnem JE (2007)
Vrijing JK and van Gelder PHA JM (1997)
Wong HN, Ho KKS and Chan YC (1997)
Chapter 11
From risk estimation to landslide
management strategy
11.1. Introduction to landslide risk management
Figure 11.1
11.2. Assessment criteria
11.3. Risk acceptance criteria: legal frameworks
11.4. Acceptable or tolerable risks: the ALARP principle in the UK
Figure 11.2
11.5. Individual risk criteria
Table 11.1
Table 11.2
Table 11.3
11.6. Societal risk criteria
Figure 11.3
Figure 11.4
Figure 11.5
11.7. Corporate risk management: major accident risk criteria
Figure 11.6
Figure 11.7
11.8. Applying the ALARP principle: loss of life
Example 11.1
Example 11.2
11.9. Applying the ALARP principle: economic risk
Table 11.4
Table 11.5
Example 11.3
Table 11.6
Table 11.7
Example 11.4
11.10. Environmental protection
Figure 11.8
Example 11.5
Example 11.6
Table 11.8
11.11. Environmental acceptability
11.12. Corporate risk management: the risk matrix approach
Table 11.9
11.13. Future uncertainty: implications for landslide management
Figure 11.9
Table 11.10
Table 11.11
11.14. Risk assessment, decision-making and consultation
References
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AGS (Australian Geomechanics Society) (2007)
Ale BJM (2005)
ANCOLD (Australian National Committee on Large Dams) (2003)
Angeli MG, Gasparetto P, Menotti RM, Pasuto A and Silvano S (1994)
Ball DJ and Floyd PJ (1998)
Basta C, Neuvel JMM, Zlatanova S and Ale B (2007)
Bateman I and Willis KG (1999)
BC Hydro (1993)
BP (2007)
Bromhead EN (2005)
Burton I, Kates RW and White GF (1978)
Clark AR, Lee EM and Moore R (1996)
Considine M and Hall SM (2008)
Costa JE and Wieczorek GF (eds) (1987)
Dai FC, Lee CF and Ngai YY (2002)
Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions (2002)
DNV (District of North Vancouver) (2009)
Energy Institute (2008a)
Energy Institute (2008b)
ERM-Hong Kong (1998)
Fannin RJ, Moore GD, Schwab JW and VanDine DF (2005)
Fell R and Hartford D (1997)
Fookes PG and Sweeney M (1976)
Fort DS and Clark AR (2002)
Hartford DND (2009)
Ho K, Leroi E and Roberds B (2000)
Holz RD and Schuster RL (1996)
Hood C and Jones DKC (eds) (1996)
Horowitz JK and Carson RT (1993)
HSE (Health and Safety Executive) (1988)
HSE (1992)
HSE (2001)
Hubbard DW (2009)
Hutchinson JN (1977)
Iceland Ministry for the Environment (2000)
Johnson AD (2012)
Jones DKC (1991)
Jones DKC (1996)
Knight RF and Pretty DJ (2002)
Kong WK (2002)
Lee EM (1995)
Lee EM (2000)
Lee EM (2002)
Lee EM and Clark AR (2002)
Lee EM, Brunsden D, Roberts H, Jewell S and McInnes R (2001)
Lee-Youngren T and Hodgson J (1998)
Leroi E, Bonnard C, Fell R and McInnes (2005)
Lewis S (2007)
Liew KC, Zainuddin ZM and Samad AB (2002)
McInnes RG (2000)
McInnes R (2005)
McIntyre T (2005)
McQuaid J and Le Guen JM (1998)
MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food) (1993)
MAFF (1999)
Malone AW (2005)
Mitchell RC and Carson RT (1989)
Morrison R (2012)
Murray JG (2000)
Nature Geoscience (2013)
Palm RI (1990)
Paus HL (2005)
Pearce D, Atkinson G and Mourato S (2006)
Penning-Rowsell EC, Parker DJ and Harding DM (1986)
Penning-Rowsell EC, Green CH, Thompson PM et al. (1992)
Phillips C and Marden M (2005)
Reeves A, Ho KKS and Lo DOK (1999)
Rio Tinto (2009)
Royal Society (1992)
Schuster RL and Kockelman WJ (1996)
Sidle RC, Pearce AJ and O’Loughlin CL (1985)
Smith K (2001)
Stern PC and Fineberg HV (eds) (1996)
Vallet S (2004)
Vinnem JE (2007)
Wood C (1995)
Wyllie DC and Norrish NI (1996)
Chapter 12
Future challenges
12.1. Introduction
12.2. Quantitative risk zonation: lessons from Ventnor, Isle of Wight
12.3. Landslide risks and major project schedules: lessons from the Camisea pipeline, Peru
Table 12.1
12.4. Risk assessment and management of extreme events: lessons from Fukushima, Japan
12.5. Landslide management and the environment: lessons from Easton Bavents
12.6. Future uncertainty: valuation of environmental resources
12.7. Future uncertainty: global change
12.8. Evidence for climate change
12.9. Future uncertainty: climate model predictions
12.10. Increased rainfall
12.11. Sea-level change
Figure 12.1
Figure 12.2
Figure 12.3
Table 12.2
Table 12.3
Figure 12.4
Table 12.4
12.12. Uncertainty and risk assessment
Figure 12.5
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Glossary of terms
Glossary of terms
Index
Index