Knowledge shifts and the business cycle: When boom turns to bust

Identifying business cycle turning point

Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area

✍ Monica Billio; Roberto Casarin 📂 Article 📅 2010 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 604 KB

## Abstract We propose a new approach for detecting turning points and forecasting the level of economic activity in the business cycle. We make use of coincident indicators and of nonlinear and non‐Gaussian latent variable models. We thus combine the ability of nonlinear models to capture the asym