Judgment and Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader (Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making)

✍ Scribed by Terry Connolly, Hal R. Arkes, Kenneth R. Hammond (Editors)

Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Year: 1999
Tongue: English
Leaves: 806
Series: Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making
Edition: 2nd
Category: Library

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Researchers in a growing number of fields--public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others--are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions are treated in this largely expanded volume. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Cover
......Page 1
Title Page
......Page 5
Copyright
......Page 7
Contents......Page 8
Preface to the Second Edition......Page 18
General Introduction......Page 20
PART I: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW......Page 32
1. Multiattribute Evaluation (Ward Edwards and J. Robert Newman)......Page 36
2. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman)......Page 54
3. Coherence and Correspondence Theories in Judgment and Decision Making (Kenneth R. Hammond)......Page 72
4. Enhancing Diagnostic Decisions (John A. Swets)......Page 85
PART II: APPLICATIONS IN PUBLIC POLICY......Page 102
5. Illusions and Mirages in Public Policy (Richard H. Thaler)......Page 104
6. The Psychology of Sunk Cost (Hal R. Arkes and Catherine Blumer)......Page 116
7. Value-Focused Thinking About Strategic Decisions at BC Hydro (Ralph L. Keeney and Timothy L. McDaniels)......Page 133
8. Making Better Use of Scientific Knowledge: Separating Truth from Justice (Kenneth R. Hammond, Lewis O. Harvey, Jr., and Reid Hastie)......Page 150
PART III: APPLICATIONS IN ECONOMICS......Page 164
9. Choices, Values, and Frames (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky)......Page 166
10. Who Uses the Cost-Benefit Rules of Choice? Implications for the Normative Status of Microeconomic Theory (Richard P. Larrick, Richard E. Nisbett, and James N. Morgan)......Page 185
11. Does Studying Economics Inhibit Cooperation? (Robert E. Frank, Thomas Gilovich, and Dennis T. Regan)......Page 202
PART IV: LEGAL APPLICATIONS......Page 216
12. Leading Questions and the Eyewitness Report (Elizabeth F. Loftus)......Page 218
13. Explanation-Based Decision Making (Reid Hastie and Nancy Pennington)......Page 231
14. Decision Theory, Reasonable Doubt, and the Utility of Erroneous Acquittals (Terry Connolly)......Page 248
PART V: MEDICAL APPLICATIONS......Page 260
15. Capturing Policy in Hearing-Aid Decisions by Audiologists (Janet Doyle and Shane A. Thomas)......Page 264
16. Physicians' Use of Probabilistic Information in a Real Clinical Setting (Jay J. J. Christensen-Szalanski and James B. Bushyhead)......Page 278
17. On the Elicitation of Preferences for Alternative Therapies (Barbara J. McNeil, Stephen G. Pauker, Harold C. Sox, Jr., and Amos Tversky)......Page 291
18. Enhanced Interpretation of Diagnostic Images (David J. Getty, Ronald M. Pickett, Carl J. D'Orsi, and John A. Swets)......Page 300
PART VI: EXPERTS......Page 320
19. Reducing the Influence of Irrelevant Information on Experienced Decision Makers (Gary J. Gaeth and James Shanteau)......Page 324
20. Expert Judgment: Some Necessary Conditions and an Example (Hillel J. Einhorn)......Page 343
21. The Expert Witness in Psychology and Psychiatry (David Faust and Jay Ziskin)......Page 355
PART VII: FORECASTING AND PREDICTION......Page 368
22. What Forecasts (Seem to) Mean (Baruch Fischhoff)......Page 372
23. Proper and Improper Linear Models (Robyn M. Dawes)......Page 397
24. Seven Components of Judgmental Forecasting Skill: Implications for Research and the Improvement of Forecasts (Thomas R. Stewart and Cynthia M. Lusk)......Page 414
PART VIII: BARGAINING AND NEGOTIATION......Page 438
25. The Judgment Policies of Negotiators and the Structure of Negotiation Problems (Jeryl L. Mumpower)......Page 442
26. The Effect of Agents and Mediators on Negotiation Outcomes (Max H. Bazerman, Margaret A. Neale, Kathleen L. Valley, Edward J. Zajac, and Yong Min Kim)......Page 461
PART IX: RISK......Page 480
27. Rish within Reason (Richard J. Zeckhauser and W. Kip Viscusi)......Page 484
28. Risk Perception and Communication (Baruch Fischhoff, Ann Bostrom, and Marilyn Jacobs Quadrel)......Page 498
29. Perceived Risk, Trust, and Democracy (Paul Slovic)......Page 519
PART X: RESEARCH METHODS......Page 534
30. Value Elicitation: Is There Anything in There? (Baruch Fischhoff)......Page 536
31. The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items (Peter Juslin)......Page 563
32. The A Priori Case Against Graphology: Methodological and Conceptual Issues (Maya Bar-Hillel and Gershon Ben-Shakhar)......Page 575
PART X: CRITIQUES AND NEW DIRECTIONS I......Page 590
33. The Two Camps on Rationality (Helmut Jungermann)......Page 594
34. On Cognitive Illusions and Their Implications (Ward Edwards and Detlof von Winterfeldt)......Page 611
35. Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality (Gerd Gigerenzer and Daniel G. Goldstein)......Page 640
36. Judgment and Decision Making in Social Context: Discourse Processes and Rational Inference (Denis J. Hilton and Ben R. Slugoski)......Page 670
PART XII: CRITIQUES AND NEW DIRECTIONS II......Page 696
37. Why We Still Use Our Heads Instead of Formulas: Toward an Integrative Approach (Benjamin Kleinmuntz)......Page 700
38. Nonconsequentialist Decisions (Jonathan Baron)......Page 731
39. Algebra and Process in the Modeling of Risky Choice (Lola L. Lopes)......Page 752
40. The Theory of Image Control: An Examination of the Central Conceptual Structure (Terry Connolly and Lee Roy Beach)......Page 774
Author Index......Page 785
Subject Index......Page 798
Back Cover
......Page 806
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