Although scientists have effectively employed the concepts of probability to address the complex problem of prediction, modern science still falls short in establishing true predictions with meaningful lead times of zero-probability major disasters. The recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and China
Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters (Systems Evaluation, Prediction and Decision-Making)
✍ Scribed by Yi Lin, Shoucheng OuYang
- Year
- 2010
- Tongue
- English
- Leaves
- 598
- Edition
- 1
- Category
- Library
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Although scientists have effectively employed the concepts of probability to address the complex problem of prediction, modern science still falls short in establishing true predictions with meaningful lead times of zero-probability major disasters. The recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and China are tragic reminders of the critical need for improved methods of predicting natural disasters. Drawing on their vast practical experience and theoretical studies, Dr. Yi Lin and Professor Shoucheng OuYang examine some of the problems that exist in the modern system of science to provide the understanding required to improve our ability to forecast and prepare for such events. Presenting a series of new understandings, theories, and a new system of methodology, Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters simplifies the world-class problem of prediction into a series of tasks that can be learned, mastered, and applied in the analysis and prediction of forthcoming changes in materials or fluids. These internationally respected authors introduce their novel method of digitization for dealing with irregular information, proven effective for predicting transitional changes in events. They also: Unveil a new methodology for forecasting zero-probability natural disasters Highlight the reasons for common forecasting failures Propose a method for resolving the mystery of nonlinearity Include numerous real-life case studies that illustrate how to properly digitize available information Supply proven methods for forecasting small-probability natural disasters This authoritative resource provides a systematic discussion of the non-evolutionality of the modern system of science—analyzing its capabilities and limitations. By touching on the need for change in some of the fundamentals in basic scientific theories and relevant methodologies, this book provides the scientific community with the understanding and methodology required to forecast zero-probability major disasters with greatly improved accuracy.
📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES
As a powerful approach to data reasoning, rough set theory has proven to be invaluable in knowledge acquisition, decision analysis and forecasting, and knowledge discovery. With the ability to enhance the advantages of other soft technology theories, hybrid rough set theory is quickly emerging as a
As a powerful approach to data reasoning, rough set theory has proven to be invaluable in knowledge acquisition, decision analysis and forecasting, and knowledge discovery. With the ability to enhance the advantages of other soft technology theories, hybrid rough set theory is quickly emerging as a
Based on research projects supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Optimization of Regional Industrial Structures and Applications provides an authoritative introduction to and survey of the cutting-edge research and appli
<P><U>Constructive Suggestions for Efficiently Implementing Technology Transfer</U> </P> <P><STRONG>Theory of Science and Technology Transfer and Applications presents the mechanisms, features, effects, and modes of technology transfer. It addresses the measurement, cost, benefit, optimal allocati
A Novel Method to Analyze Problems and Encourage Systemic ThinkingReal-Life Case Studies Illustrate the Application of the Systemic Yoyo Model in Diverse Areas Written by the co-creator of the systemic yoyo model, Systemic Yoyos: Some Impacts of the Second Dimension shows how the yoyo model and its