✦ LIBER ✦

Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth

✍ Scribed by Maximo Camacho; Gabriel Perez-Quiros

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 2010
Tongue: English
Weight: 370 KB
Volume: 25
Category: Article
ISSN: 0883-7252
DOI: 10.1002/jae.1174

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

We set out a model to compute short‐term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real‐time dataset that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. With this dataset we show that our simple factor model algorithm, which uses an easy‐to‐replicate methodology, is able to forecast the euro area GDP growth as well as professional forecasters who can combine the best forecasting tools with the possibility of incorporating their own judgement. In this context, we provide examples showing how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES

Econometric modelling for short-term inf

Econometric modelling for short-term inflation forecasting in the euro area

✍ Antoni Espasa; Rebeca Albacete 📂 Article 📅 2007 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 274 KB

## Abstract This paper examines the problem of forecasting macro‐variables which are observed monthly (or quarterly) and result from geographical and sectorial aggregation. The aim is to formulate a methodology whereby all relevant information gathered in this context could provide more accurate fo

Short-term forecasts of euro area real G

Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

✍ Marie Diron 📂 Article 📅 2008 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 153 KB

## Abstract Forecasters commonly predict real gross domestic product growth from monthly indicators such as industrial production, retail sales and surveys, and therefore require an assessment of the reliability of such tools. While forecast errors related to model specification and unavailability