Integrating scenario planning and goal programming

✍ Scribed by Ian Durbach; Theodor J. Stewart

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 2003
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 174 KB
• Volume: 12
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 1057-9214
• DOI: 10.1002/mcda.362

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

This paper concerns the integration of goal programming and scenario planning as an aid to decision making under uncertainty. Goal programming as a methodology emphasises the resolution of conflict among criteria; scenario planning focuses on the treatment of uncertainty relating to future states of the world. Integrating the two methodologies is based on the simple formulation of a super‐goal programme consisting of one scenario‐specific goal program in each scenario. Issues relating to the structuring of the super‐problem, aggregation both within and over scenarios, and the incorporation of probabilistic information are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.