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Inflation changes, yield spreads, and threshold effects

✍ Scribed by Greg Tkacz


Book ID
114344259
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2004
Tongue
English
Weight
124 KB
Volume
13
Category
Article
ISSN
1059-0560

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## Abstract We analyse the nonlinear behaviour of the information content in the spread for future real economic activity. The spread linearly predicts one‐year‐ahead real growth in nine industrial production sectors of the USA and four of the UK over the last 40 years. However, recent investigatio