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Inference, Method and Decision: Towards a Bayesian Philosophy of Science

✍ Scribed by Roger D. Rosenkrantz (auth.)


Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Year
1977
Tongue
English
Leaves
280
Series
Synthese Library 115
Edition
1
Category
Library

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✦ Synopsis


This book grew out of previously published papers of mine composed over a period of years; they have been reworked (sometimes beyond recognition) so as to form a reasonably coherent whole. Part One treats of informative inference. I argue (Chapter 2) that the traditional principle of induction in its clearest formulation (that laws are confirmed by their positive cases) is clearly false. Other formulations in terms of the 'uniformity of nature' or the 'resemblance of the future to the past' seem to me hopelessly unclear. From a Bayesian point of view, 'learning from experience' goes by conditionalization (Bayes' rule). The traditional stumΒ­ bling block for Bayesians has been to fmd objective probability inputs to conditionalize upon. Subjective Bayesians allow any probability inputs that do not violate the usual axioms of probability. Many subjectivists grant that this liberality seems prodigal but own themselves unable to think of additional constraints that might plausibly be imposed. To be sure, if we could agree on the correct probabilistic representation of 'ignorance' (or absence of pertinent data), then all probabilities obtained by applying Bayes' rule to an 'informationless' prior would be objective. But familiar contraΒ­ dictions, like the Bertrand paradox, are thought to vitiate all attempts to objectify 'ignorance'. BuUding on the earlier work of Sir Harold Jeffreys, E. T. Jaynes, and the more recent work ofG. E. P. Box and G. E. Tiao, I have elected to bite this bullet. In Chapter 3, I develop and defend an objectivist Bayesian approach.

✦ Table of Contents


Front Matter....Pages i-xv
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Information....Pages 3-32
The Paradoxes of Confirmation....Pages 33-41
Inductivism and Probabilism....Pages 42-83
Inductive Generalization....Pages 84-90
Front Matter....Pages 91-91
Simplicity....Pages 93-117
Bayes and Popper....Pages 118-134
The Copernican Revelation....Pages 135-161
Explanation....Pages 162-173
Front Matter....Pages 175-175
Support....Pages 177-187
Testing....Pages 188-223
Bayes/Orthodox Comparisons....Pages 224-241
Cognitive Decisions....Pages 242-256
Back Matter....Pages 257-270

✦ Subjects


Philosophy of Science


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