## Abstract A novel method of visualizing and understanding the internal functional behaviour of an artificial neural network (ANN) river flow model is presented. The method hypothesizes that an ANN is able to map a function similar to the flow duration curve while modelling the river flow. A mathe
Improving peak flow estimates in artificial neural network river flow models
✍ Scribed by K. P. Sudheer; P. C. Nayak; K. S. Ramasastri
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2003
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 171 KB
- Volume
- 17
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0885-6087
- DOI
- 10.1002/hyp.5103
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✦ Synopsis
Abstract
In this paper, the concern of accuracy in peak estimation by the artificial neural network (ANN) river flow models is discussed and a suitable statistical procedure to get better estimates from these models is presented. The possible cause for underestimation of peak flow values has been attributed to the local variations in the function being mapped due to varying skewness in the data series, and theoretical considerations of the network functioning confirm this. It is envisaged that an appropriate data transformation will reduce the local variations in the function being mapped, and thus any ANN model built on the transformed series should perform better. This heuristic is illustrated and confirmed by many case studies and the results suggest that the model performance is significantly improved by data transformation. The model built on transformed data outperforms the model built on raw data in terms of various statistical performance indices. The peak estimates are improved significantly by data transformation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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