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Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble

✍ Scribed by Krishnamurti, T. N.

Book ID
121001229
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Year
1999
Tongue
English
Weight
168 KB
Volume
285
Category
Article
ISSN
0036-8075

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✦ Synopsis

A method for improving weather and climate forecast skill has been developed. It is called a superensemble, and it arose from a study of the statistical properties of a low-order spectral model. Multiple regression was used to determine coefficients from multimodel forecasts and observations. The coefficients were then used in the superensemble technique. The superensemble was shown to outperform all model forecasts for multiseasonal, medium-range weather and hurricane forecasts. In addition, the superensemble was shown to have higher skill than forecasts based solely on ensemble averaging.

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