Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems

✍ Scribed by Obaid Younossi, Lionel A. Galway, Bernard Fox, John C. Graser

• Publisher: Rand Publishing
• Year: 2006
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 193
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Cost analysts must predict-sometimes very far-into the future how much money the military will spend on weapon systems. But these analysts do not have perfect knowledge about tomorrow's technology, economic conditions, or any other future event. This book looks at how estimates for future weapon systems can be more realistic than in the past and how cost uncertainty analyses can be more comprehensive and informative.

✦ Table of Contents

Preliminaries......Page 1
Preface......Page 4
Contents......Page 8
Introduction......Page 28
History of Cost Growth......Page 46
A Review of General Risk Methods......Page 62
Risk Analysis in Cost Estimation......Page 68
Decisionmaker Perspectives on Cost Risk Analysis......Page 98
Communicating Cost Risk to the Decisionmakers......Page 108
Setting a Cost Risk Analysis Policy......Page 114
APPENDIX......Page 128
Bibliography......Page 184