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Human Judgment: How Accurate Is It, and How Can It Get Better?

✍ Scribed by John Wilcox

Publisher
Springer
Year
2023
Tongue
English
Leaves
157
Series
SpringerBriefs in Psychology
Edition
1
Category
Library
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✦ Synopsis

We humans make judgments about a staggering variety of topics. These include which medical condition is the correct diagnosis for your symptoms, whether a particular defendant is guilty of some crime or whether a particular political candidate will win an election―to name a few of countless examples. But how accurate are the judgments we all make, and how can they get better? This book synthesizes interdisciplinary research about these questions into one volume. In doing so, it uniquely draws on insights from fields as diverse as medicine, political judgment, cross-cultural psychology, evolutionary history and the heuristics and biases research program. Consequently, the book also enables readers concerned with judgmental accuracy in one field to benefit from the insights in others. Moreover, the author introduces an emerging field of research: empirical epistemology or normative cognitive science. The book lastly articulates a set of recommendations―recommendations aiming to improve our judgment, our decision-making and ultimately our lives.

✦ Table of Contents

Testimonies
Acknowledgments
Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Judgmental Accuracy: Why It Is Important
1.2 The Focus of This Book
1.3 How This Book Was Researched
1.4 Intended Audiences and How to Read This Book
1.5 Structure of This Book
References
Chapter 2: What Is Judgmental Accuracy: Concepts and Measurement
2.1 What Judgmental Accuracy Involves: Correspondence and Confidence
2.1.1 Objective Truth and the Correspondence Theory
2.1.2 Misconceptions About Objective Truth
2.1.2.1 Objection #1: The Diversity of Opinions About Truth
2.1.2.2 Objection #2: The Subjectivity of Truths About Money or Other Topics
2.1.2.3 Objection #3: Track Record of Failures to Grasp Truth
2.1.2.4 Objection #4: There Is No Way to Tell Truth
2.1.2.5 Objection #5: Truth Depends on Language
2.1.2.6 Objection #6: The Ambiguity and Vagueness of Language
2.1.2.7 Objection #7: Alternative Definitions of Objectivity
2.1.3 Why Does It Matter?
2.1.4 Degrees of Confidence
2.2 How Do We Measure Judgmental Accuracy: Calibration, Resolution, and Friends
2.2.1 Measurement Validity: Internal and External
2.2.2 A Good Measure of Accuracy: Binned Calibration and Resolution
2.2.3 Less Good Measures of Accuracy
2.2.3.1 Unbinned Calibration
2.2.3.2 Brier Scores
2.2.4 Measures of Collective Accuracy
2.2.4.1 Unweighted Binned Calibration
2.2.4.2 Unbinned Calibration
2.2.4.3 Brier Scores
2.2.4.4 Weighted Binned Calibration
2.3 Summary
References
Chapter 3: What We Think: The Accuracy of Our Judgments
3.1 Who Is Accurate: How Society Flies Blind
3.2 How Accurate Are Cultures: Inaccuracy in Cross-Cultural Psychology
3.3 How Accurate Are Medical Professionals: Inaccuracy in Medicine
3.4 How Accurate Are Political Experts: Inaccuracy in Political Judgment
3.5 How Accurate Are Judges and Juries: Inaccuracy in Law
3.6 Other Evidence of Inaccuracy: Disagreement
3.7 Contexts with Underconfidence
3.8 Summary
References
Chapter 4: How We Evaluate Our Thinking: The Accuracy of Our Metacognition
4.1 Evidence of Metacognitive Inaccuracy
4.2 Explanations of Metacognitive Inaccuracy
4.3 Summary
References
Chapter 5: How We Think: The Rationality of Our Reasoning
5.1 Rationality, Heuristics, and Biases
5.2 Dual-Process Theory: System 1 and System 2
5.3 Misconceptions About Heuristics and Type 1 Processing
5.4 Search Heuristics and Inference Heuristics
5.4.1 Motivation, Search Heuristics, and Confirmation Bias
5.4.2 Availability Heuristic
5.4.3 Representativeness Heuristic
5.4.4 Anchoring Heuristic
5.4.5 Motivated Reasoning
5.5 Social Influences
5.6 Summary
References
Chapter 6: How We Were Made: The Evolutionary Origins of Thought
6.1 Evolution, Functions, and the Intellectualist View
6.2 Mercier and Sperber’s Interactionist Approach
6.3 Critical Evaluation of Mercier and Sperber’s Arguments
6.4 Tangential Interlude: The Harm of Confirmation Bias
6.5 Summary
References
Chapter 7: What Correlates with Accuracy: The Empirical Epistemology of Optimal Cognition
7.1 Empirical Epistemology
7.2 The Domain Generality of Empirical Epistemology
7.3 Insights from Empirical Epistemology
7.3.1 Situational Variables
7.3.2 Motivational Variables
7.3.3 Cognitive Variables
7.3.4 Metacognitive Variables
7.3.5 What Does Not Correlate with Accuracy
7.4 Summary
References
Chapter 8: How Can We Get More Accurate: Recommendations About Human Judgment
8.1 Category 1: Improving Our Own Judgments
8.1.1 Foster Motivation
8.1.2 Become Accountable
8.1.3 Track Your Accuracy
8.1.4 Be Your Own Skeptic: Expect Inaccuracy and Embrace Humility
8.1.5 Beware of Intuition
8.1.6 Practice Active Open-Minded Thinking
8.1.7 Gather Subject-Specific Knowledge and from Diverse Sources
8.1.8 Use Statistics, Especially Base Rates
8.1.9 Average Estimates from Conflicting Sources
8.1.10 Test for Scope Sensitivity
8.1.11 Do Postmortems
8.1.12 Take Some Training
8.2 Category 2: Estimating the Accuracy of Other Sources
8.2.1 Be Skeptical of Judgment, But Not Too Skeptical
8.2.2 Estimate Accuracy Based on Track Records
8.2.3 Look for Models or Theories with Track Records of Accuracy
8.2.4 Pay Attention to Qualifiers
8.2.5 Do Not Estimate Accuracy Based on One-Off Successes or Failures
8.2.6 Do Not Always Estimate Accuracy from Years of Experience, Education, Fame, or Confidence Levels
8.2.7 Trust Experts, But Not Too Much
8.2.8 Listen to Non-Experts, But Not Uncritically
8.2.9 Beware of Negative Social Influences
8.2.10 Tolerate Length and Nuance
8.3 Category 3: Managing Businesses or Other Organizations
8.3.1 Adopt all the Recommendations in the Previous Category
8.3.2 Promote Motivation and Accountability in Your Organization
8.3.3 Measure Track Records
8.3.4 Give Feedback
8.3.5 Expect Backlash from the Inaccurate
8.3.6 When Possible, Create Teams, Especially of Those with the Best Track Records
8.3.7 Give Training
8.3.8 Make Accuracy Profitable
References
Chapter 9: Conclusion
Appendix: Judgments and Emotions
The Close Connection Between Judgment and Emotions
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy
Step One: Understanding Emotions Via Understanding Their Underlying Judgments
Step Two: Challenging Judgments
References
Index

✦ Subjects

Rationality; Judgement; Medical Diagnosis; Biases; Decision Making; Accuracy

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