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How to exit from fixed exchange rate regimes?

✍ Scribed by Ahmet Atil AŞici; Nadezhda Ivanova; Charles Wyplosz

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2008
Tongue
English
Weight
220 KB
Volume
13
Category
Article
ISSN
1076-9307

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✦ Synopsis

Abstract

This paper improves upon the recently developed literature on exits from fixed exchange rate regimes in three ways: (1) It allows for two indicators for post‐exit macroeconomic conditions, the change in the exchange rate and the change in the output gap; (2) it tests whether the distinction between orderly and disorderly exit is statistically justified, and concludes that it is not; (3) it deals with the sample selection problem. The results, subject to extensive sensitivity analysis, suggest that post‐exits are better when depegging occurs in good macroeconomic conditions — an unnatural move for most policymakers — when world interest rates decline and in the presence of capital controls. Importantly, ‘good’ macroeconomic policies do not seem to help with post‐exit performance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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