How are base-rates used, when they are used: a comparison of additive and Bayesian models of base-rate use
✍ Scribed by Nathan Novemsky; Shirit Kronzon
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1999
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 187 KB
- Volume
- 12
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0894-3257
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Previous research has uncovered many conditions that encourage base-rate use. The present research investigates how base-rates are used when conditions are manipulated to encourage their use in the lawyer/engineer paradigm. To examine the functional form of the response to base-rate, a factorial design was employed in which both base-rate and the individuating information were varied within-subject. We compared the performance of several models of base-rate use, including a model that allows base-rate and individuating information to be combined in a strictly additive fashion, and a model which presumes that respondents use Bayes' Rule in forming their judgments. Results from 1493 respondents showed that the additive model is a stronger predictor of base-rate use than any other model considered, suggesting that the base-rate and individuating information are processed independently in the lawyer/engineer paradigm. A possible mechanism for this ®nding is discussed.