✦ LIBER ✦
How Accurate are the U.S. Bureau of the Census Projections of Total Live Births?
✍ Scribed by Dennis A. Ahlburg
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1982
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 555 KB
- Volume
- 1
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Abstract
The accuracy of total live birth forecasts issued by the U.S. Bureau of the Census was analysed. Forecast accuracy has not improved significantly since 1950. Further, the forecasts are not more accurate than several naive alternatives. Moving from a period methodology to a cohort methodology improved forecast accuracy for certain forecasts. The Bureau of the Census systematically underestimated total births in the upswing and overestimated in the downswing.