Abstract
Hostage taking incidents in which the police besiege a particular location are known as hostage barricade incidents. The first aim of the present article was to examine the process of risk assessment in hostage incidents, using a group of police officers as the sample. The second aim was to identify the risk factors involved in hostage incidents and examine the degree of concordance between the risk as assessed by the police officers and the figures obtained from the analysis of actual hostage barricade incidents. For the purpose of this study, a survey was carried out across Japan, and 45 police officers responsible for hostage negotiation responded to the questionnaires. Additionally, a sample of 116 actual hostage barricade incidents that occurred in Japan from 1970 to 2002 was utilised to examine the high risk factors involved in such cases. As per the results, a majority of the police officers (73.3%), in response to an openβended question, indicated that the highly excited state of the hostage takers was dangerous for the hostages. Moreover, it was demonstrated in all 116 incidents that several factors such as βa long siegeβ tended to increase the risk of deaths, though this was very rare (nβ=β4). On the other hand, the proportion of injuries to the hostages was high in expressive situations such as domestic situations or suicide attempt scenarios. On the whole, the results obtained from the analyses of actual incidents were consistent with those obtained from the police officers' risk assessment in many respects. However, the correlation between the degree of risk as assessed by the police officers and the actual rate of deaths/injuries to the hostages was very low. Copyright Β© 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.