Abstract
This paper presents a new computational tool for predicting failure probability of structural/mechanical systems subject to random loads, material properties, and geometry. The method involves high‐dimensional model representation (HDMR) that facilitates lower‐dimensional approximation of the original high‐dimensional implicit limit state/performance function, response surface generation of HDMR component functions, and Monte Carlo simulation. HDMR is a general set of quantitative model assessment and analysis tools for capturing the high‐dimensional relationships between sets of input and output model variables. It is a very efficient formulation of the system response, if higher‐order variable correlations are weak, allowing the physical model to be captured by the first few lower‐order terms. Once the approximate form of the original implicit limit state/performance function is defined, the failure probability can be obtained by statistical simulation. Results of nine numerical examples involving mathematical functions and structural mechanics problems indicate that the proposed method provides accurate and computationally efficient estimates of the probability of failure. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.