Rarely is the informational data required for the analysis of resource allocation decisions known with precision; uncertainty in such data is the rule, and not the exception. The conventional approach relying on data averaging, even when coupled with sensitivity analysis, limits the insights obtaina
Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty
โ Scribed by Jean-Daniel Saphores
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 2003
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 330 KB
- Volume
- 28
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0165-1889
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โฆ Synopsis
This paper presents a theory of harvesting that allows for partial harvests and accounts for the risk of extinction, for biological assets with size-dependent stochastic growth. The harvesting decision is formulated as a disinvestment problem in continuous time and generalized Faustmann formulas are derived. The probability of extinction is then analyzed for a wide class of growth functions. An illustration based on the logistic Brownian motion shows that both optimal biomass at harvest and harvest size do not vary monotonically with uncertainty. More generally, this paper illustrates the importance of properly accounting for barriers in stochastic investment problems.
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