Going Up–Going Down: How Good Are People at Forecasting Trends and Changes in Trends?
✍ Scribed by MARCUS O'CONNOR; WILLIAM REMUS; KEN GRIGGS
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1997
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 176 KB
- Volume
- 16
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Prior studies of judgemental time-series forecasting have found that people have problems with downward-sloping series. This laboratory-based study presents a controlled experiment of series direction and it investigates the problems of changing trends. Results con®rm that people have signi®cant diculties in dealing with downward-sloping series and that behaviour is consistent with a general tendency to anticipate that downward series will reverse themselves. There is a signi®cantly less tendency to do so for upward series. Results are discussed in terms of systematic and unsystematic error.