✦ LIBER ✦

Geometric Brownian motion as a model for river flows

✍ Scribed by Mario Lefebvre

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 2002
Tongue: English
Weight: 83 KB
Volume: 16
Category: Article
ISSN: 0885-6087
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.1083

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

Let X(t) be the flow of a certain river at time t. A geometric Brownian motion process is used as a model for X(t) and is found to give very good forecasts of future flows. The forecasted values generated by this one‐dimensional model are compared with those provided by a deterministic model that requires the evaluation of 18 entries. Based on two important criteria, the stochastic model is superior, on average, to the deterministic model for forecasts up to 4 days ahead. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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