Forecasting Tourism Demand. Methods and Strategies

✍ Scribed by Douglas C. Frechtling (Auth.)

• Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann
• Year: 2001
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 283
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

'Forecasting tourism demand' is a text that no tourism professional can afford to be without. The tourism industry has experienced an overwhelming boom over recent years, and being able to predict future trends as accurately as possible is vital in the struggle to stay one step ahead of the competition. Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry. 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs charts and tables to explain how to: * plan a forecasting project * analyse time series and other information * select the appropriate forecasting model * use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results Ideal for marketing managers and strategic planners in business, transportation planners and economic policy makers in government who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it invaluable in assisting them to evaluate the validity and reliability of predictions and forecasts. Those engaged in analysing business trends will find it useful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world. Userfriendly guide to 13 methods of forecasting and selecting the one for you Examples from lodging, destination, airline and international tourism sectors Over 40 case studies illustrating the application of techniques described in the book Read more...

✦ Table of Contents

Content:
Copyright, Page iv
Foreword, Page xvii
Preface, Pages xix-xx
Acknowledgements, Page xxi
Chapter 1 - Introduction, Pages 1-18
Chapter 2 - Alternative forecasting methods and evaluation, Pages 19-44
Chapter 3 - The tourism forecasting process, Pages 45-57
Chapter 4 - Basic extrapolative models and decomposition, Pages 58-85
Chapter 5 - Intermediate extrapolative methods, Pages 86-110
Chapter 6 - An advanced extrapolative method, Pages 111-140
Chapter 7 - Causal methods: regression analysis, Pages 141-200
Chapter 8 - Causal methods: structural econometric models, Pages 201-209
Chapter 9 - Qualitative forecasting methods, Pages 210-235
Chapter 10 - Conclusion, Pages 236-243
Appendix 1 - Hotel/motel room demand in Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, 1987–99, Pages 245-247
Appendix 2 - Dealing with super-annual events, Pages 248-251
Appendix 3 - Splicing a forecast to a time series, Pages 252-256
Glossary and abbreviations, Pages 257-266
Select bibliography, Pages 267-274
Index, Pages 275-279