Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model
β Scribed by Koopman, Siem Jan; van der Wel, Michel
- Book ID
- 122890650
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 2013
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 833 KB
- Volume
- 29
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
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In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditional mean and variance of the short-term interest rate process. The estimation of such models is addressed and the asymptotic properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator are derived. Model specification is also disc
## Abstract This article presents a twoβfactor model of the term structure of interest rates. It is assumed that defaultβfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the longβterm interest rate, and the spread (i.e., the difference) between the shortβterm (insta