✦ LIBER ✦

Forecasting the leading index using fuzzy linguistic prediction

✍ Scribed by Ding-An Chiang; Yi-Fan Wang; Yi-Hsin Wang; Yu-Liang Chuang

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 2003
Tongue: English
Weight: 112 KB
Volume: 18
Category: Article
ISSN: 0884-8173
DOI: 10.1002/int.10123

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

We propose a fuzzy linguistic prediction method for improving fuzzy random prediction. It uses the bit map summary to determine the trend of objects rising or falling and then uses the fuzzy linguistic summary to compute the parameter of fuzzy random prediction. To show how this method works, we use it to predict the present Taiwan leading index, which gives the economic trend for the next 3 months. By further predicting the leading indices of months that follow, we can forecast the economic trend for the next year.

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