Forecasting S&P 500 stock index futures with a hybrid AI system
β Scribed by Ray Tsaih; Yenshan Hsu; Charles C. Lai
- Book ID
- 114155120
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 1998
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 186 KB
- Volume
- 23
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0167-9236
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
β¦ Synopsis
This study presents a hybrid AI artificial intelligence approach to the implementation of trading strategies in the S & P 500 stock index futures market. The hybrid AI approach integrates the rule-based systems technique and the neural networks technique to accurately predict the direction of daily price changes in S & P 500 stock index futures. By highlighting the advantages and overcoming the limitations of both the neural networks technique and rule-based systems technique, the hybrid approach can facilitate the development of more reliable intelligent systems to model expert thinking and to support the decision-making processes. Our methodology differs from other studies in two respects. First, the rule-based systems approach is applied to provide neural networks with training examples. Second, we employ Reasoning Neural Networks Ε½ . RN instead of Back Propagation Networks. Empirical results demonstrate that RN outperforms the other two ANN models Ε½ . Back Propagation Networks and Perceptron . Based upon this hybrid AI approach, the integrated futures trading system Ε½ . IFTS is established and employed to trade the S & P 500 stock index futures contracts. Empirical results also confirm that IFTS outperformed the passive buy-and-hold investment strategy during the 6-year testing period from 1988 to 1993.
π SIMILAR VOLUMES