𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
✦   LIBER   ✦

Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting

✍ Scribed by John Goddard; Ioannis Asimakopoulos

Book ID
102214174
Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2004
Tongue
English
Weight
119 KB
Volume
23
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

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✦ Synopsis

Abstract

An ordered probit regression model estimated using 10 years' data is used to forecast English league football match results. As well as past match results data, the significance of the match for end‐of‐season league outcomes, the involvement of the teams in cup competition and the geographical distance between the two teams' home towns all contribute to the forecasting model's performance. The model is used to test the weak‐form efficiency of prices in the fixed‐odds betting market. A strategy of selecting end‐of‐season bets with a favourable expected return according to the model appears capable of generating a positive return. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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