Floods in a Changing Climate: Risk Management

✍ Scribed by Slobodan P. Simonović

• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Year: 2013
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 206
• Series: International Hydrology Series
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Flood risk management is presented in this book as a framework for identifying, assessing and prioritizing climate-related risks and developing appropriate adaptation responses. Rigorous assessment is employed to determine the available probabilistic and fuzzy set-based analytic tools, when each is appropriate and how to apply them to practical problems. Academic researchers in the fields of hydrology, climate change, environmental science and policy and risk assessment, and professionals and policy-makers working in hazard mitigation, water resources engineering and environmental economics, will find this an invaluable resource. This volume is the fourth in a collection of four books on flood disaster management theory and practice within the context of anthropogenic climate change. The others are: Floods in a Changing Climate: Extreme Precipitation by Ramesh Teegavarapu, Floods in a Changing Climate: Hydrological Modelling by P. P. Mujumdar and D. Nagesh Kumar and Floods in a Changing Climate: Inundation Modelling by Giuliano Di Baldassarre.

✦ Table of Contents

Contents......Page 9
Forewords......Page 11
Preface......Page 13
Acknowledgments......Page 14
Definitions......Page 15
Acronyms and abbreviations......Page 18
Introduction......Page 19
The organization of the book......Page 20
Use of the book......Page 21
Part I Setting the stage......Page 23
1.1 The global flood problem......Page 25
1.2 Problem context......Page 28
1.3 Flood risk......Page 31
1.5 Systems view of flood risk management......Page 32
1.7 Exercises......Page 34
2.1.1 Floods caused by rainfall......Page 43
Effects of basin and channel morphology......Page 44
Effects of human intervention......Page 45
2.2 Climate change and variation impacts......Page 46
2.2.1 Temperature......Page 47
2.2.2 Precipitation......Page 49
2.2.4 Flooding and climate change......Page 50
Causes of changes......Page 51
Future changes......Page 52
2.3.1 Mitigation......Page 53
Methods of adaptation......Page 54
2.4 Conclusions......Page 55
2.5 Exercises......Page 56
3 Risk management as adaptation to climate change......Page 57
3.1 Flood risk management decision process......Page 58
3.1.1 Six-step procedure for flood risk management......Page 59
Step 3: Risk estimation......Page 61
Step 5: Risk control......Page 62
3.2 Approaches to flood risk management as adaptation to climate change......Page 63
3.2.2 A fuzzy set approach......Page 65
3.3.1 Background......Page 67
Transportation......Page 68
Critical facilities......Page 69
Buildings......Page 70
3.3.3 Climate modeling......Page 71
Climate modeling results: precipitation......Page 75
3.3.4 Hydrologic modeling......Page 76
3.3.5 Hydraulic modeling......Page 79
3.3.6 Risk calculation......Page 80
Risk index......Page 81
Impact multipliers, IMi......Page 83
3.3.7 Analysis of results......Page 88
3.4 Conclusions......Page 92
3.5 Exercises......Page 93
Part II Flood risk management: probabilistic approach......Page 95
4.1 Mathematical definition of risk......Page 97
4.2 Classification of risk......Page 100
4.3 Risk criteria......Page 101
4.4.2 Return period modeling......Page 102
4.4.3 Flood risk and return period......Page 103
Basics of Monte Carlo simulation......Page 105
Monte Carlo simulation, climate change, and flood risk management......Page 106
Monte Carlo simulation of future flooding conditions in the Okavango Delta......Page 110
Basics of evolutionary optimization......Page 115
Evolutionary optimization, climate change, and flood risk management......Page 119
EVOLPRO computer program......Page 121
Evolutionary optimization for flood flow forecasting with climate change implications in Choke Canyon Reservoir watershed, south Texas......Page 122
Stochastic multi-objective analysis......Page 128
Stochastic goal programming method......Page 129
Stochastic goal programming, climate change, and flood risk management......Page 131
LINPRO computer program......Page 132
Stochastic multi-objective analysis for flood emergency logistics preparation in Taipei City, Taiwan......Page 133
4.7 Exercises......Page 140
Part III Flood risk management: fuzzy set approach......Page 143
5.1.1 Problems with probability in flood risk management......Page 145
5.2.1 Basic definitions......Page 146
Complement......Page 148
Weighted center of gravity method (WCoG)......Page 149
Review of methods for development of membership functions......Page 150
Development of a fuzzy membership function for flood risk management......Page 152
5.3.1 Partial failure......Page 155
Fuzzy compatibility......Page 157
5.3.2 Fuzzy reliability-vulnerability......Page 158
5.3.4 Fuzzy resiliency......Page 159
Basics of fuzzy rule-based simulation......Page 160
Fuzzy rule-based simulation, climate change, and flood risk management......Page 162
Fuzzy simulation for the design of municipal water infrastructure under climate change......Page 165
5.4.2 Fuzzy linear programming for flood risk management under climate change......Page 167
Basics of fuzzy linear programming......Page 168
Fuzzy optimization, climate change, and flood risk management......Page 170
Fuzzy optimization of a flood control reservoir......Page 172
Method for generation of fuzzy non-dominated set of solutions......Page 175
Fuzzy compromise programming......Page 178
Fuzzy multi-objective analysis, climate change, and flood risk management......Page 180
Fuzzy multi-objective analysis of flood management alternatives in the Red River basin, Manitoba, Canada......Page 183
5.5 Conclusions......Page 189
5.6 Exercises......Page 190
Part IV Future perspectives......Page 193
6.1 Understanding climate change and flood risk management......Page 195
6.2 Adaptive flood risk management under climate change......Page 196
6.3 Risk communication......Page 197
6.4 Conclusions......Page 199
References......Page 200
Index......Page 204