𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
✦   LIBER   ✦

Fifty–Fifty=50%?

✍ Scribed by Baruch Fischhoff; Wändi Bruine De Bruin

Book ID
101279996
Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1999
Tongue
English
Weight
160 KB
Volume
12
Category
Article
ISSN
0894-3257

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Several recent surveys have asked respondents to estimate the probabilities of relatively unlikely events, such as dying from breast cancer and smoking. Examination of their response distributions reveals a seemingly inappropriate blip' at 50. The two studies reported here indicate that it re¯ects a response artifact associated with open-ended probability scales. The blip vanishes when a response scale with explicit response options is oered. Apparently, the open-ended format leads some people to use the 50% option as ®fty±®fty', an expression of having no idea as to the answer. As a result, the accuracy of people's reported beliefs depends on the response scale used, as well as on how it evokes and channels such feelings of epistemic uncertainty.

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