Feedback forecasting games: An overview

✍ Scribed by Roger J. Bowden

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 1989
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 836 KB
• Volume: 8
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0277-6693
• DOI: 10.1002/for.3980080205

✦ Synopsis

The range and rationales for forecasting schemes involving feedback are surveyed. Classic Delphi schemes involve an iterated exchange of information between a small group of experts in the pursuit of efficiencies arising from the 'collective mind'. In other applications the event or state to be forecast may itself depend upon the forecast, and feedback forecasting schemes can be derived to ailow for such reflexivity. Most situations of informational feedback are at least implicitly informational or predictive games, and a recognition of this character may help in understanding the possible or likely outcomes, including their social desirability. Various informational transfer devices such as real time surveys may speed up the process of feedback.