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Fecundibility and Social Development in China: Changes in the Distribution of the First Conception Interval

✍ Scribed by Roland Sturm; Junsen Zhang

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1993
Tongue: English
Weight: 559 KB
Volume: 35
Category: Article
ISSN: 0323-3847
DOI: 10.1002/bimj.4710350813

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

While it is typically assumed that the hazard of conception of a susceptible woman is either constant or decreasing, we find evidence that the hazard is increasing with the duration of marriage in China. This positive duration dependence may reflect the effects of spouses getting accustomed to each other and may exist in other "traditional" societies. We also explore whether changing customs may lead to changes in the duration dependence across cohorts or provinces. We find a small decline in the positive duration dependence over time in one province, which might be interpreted as a diminishing "late honeymoon"-effect. Somewhat stronger is the difference between the more rural provinces Hebei and Shatlnxi and the urbanized municipality of Shanghai.

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