𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
✦   LIBER   ✦

Evaluation of “consensus” forecasts of road surface temperatures

✍ Scribed by Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2007
Tongue
English
Weight
70 KB
Volume
3
Category
Article
ISSN
1350-4827

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Correspondence

Evaluation of "consensus" forecasts of road surface temperatures Thornes (1995) recently described the results of a comparative evaluation of road surface temperature forecasts (RSTFs) produced by the U.K. Meteorological Office (MO) and Oceanroutes (OR) over a 34-day period in FebruaryIMarch 1994 for the Catterlen site on the M6 motorway near Penrith. Specifically, he reported root mean square error (RMSE) values for minimum nighttime RSTFs of 1.48 "C for the M O forecasts and 1.52 "C for the O R forecasts. O n the basis of these and other results, the author concluded that no significant difference existed between the accuracy of the sets of forecasts provided by the two organisations.

📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES

Statistical approach for forecasting roa
Statistical approach for forecasting road surface temperature
✍ Rok Kršmanc; Alenka Šajn Slak; Janez Demšar 📂 Article 📅 2012 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 444 KB

## ABSTRACT Snow and ice make road conditions and use difficult and represent a major challenge for the winter road maintenance service. Optimizing winter maintenance service and safety thus requires accurate short‐term forecasts of the meteorological state of the roads. The most common approach to

Bayesian consensus forecasts of macroeco
Bayesian consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables
✍ Carson E. Agnew 📂 Article 📅 1985 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 848 KB

Economists, like other forecasters, share knowledge, data and theories in common. Consequently, their forecast errors are likely to be highly dependent. This paper reports on an empirical study of 16 macroeconomic forecasters. Composite forecasts are computed using a sequential weighting scheme that

The uses and abuses of ‘consensus’ forec
The uses and abuses of ‘consensus’ forecasts
✍ Stephen K. McNees 📂 Article 📅 1992 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 523 KB

Clemen's (1989) review of the forecast-combining literature amply illustrates both the interest in and the importance of this subject. This article stresses the tautological properties of various consensus measures that assure their success relative to most individual forecasts. It confirms the find

Data filtering for thermal mapping of ro
Data filtering for thermal mapping of road surface temperatures
✍ J Shao; P J Lister 📂 Article 📅 2007 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 452 KB

Thermal mapping' is the name given to the measurement of the variation in road surface temperatures across a region on winter nights. The method involves the use of infrared thermometers and data loggers mounted in modified vehicles. The signal recorded by the data logger is composed of two parts: t

An evaluation of tests of distributional
An evaluation of tests of distributional forecasts
✍ Pablo Noceti; Jeremy Smith; Stewart Hodges 📂 Article 📅 2003 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 80 KB

## Abstract One popular method for testing the validity of a model's forecasts is to use the probability integral transforms (__pits__) of the forecasts and to test for departures from the dual hypotheses of independence and uniformity, with departures from uniformity tested using the Kolmogorov–Sm