Evaluating the injury risk associated with All-Terrain Vehicles: An application of Bayes' rule
✍ Scribed by Daniel L. Rubinfeld; Gregory B. Rodgers
- Publisher
- Springer
- Year
- 1992
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 790 KB
- Volume
- 5
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0895-5646
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
This article discusses several technical and conceptual issues relating to the regulation of All-Terrain Vehicles (ATVs). Quafitative response models are used to analyze a survey of injured persons and a survey of the general population of users. Because the latter did not distinguish injured and noninjured persons, an application of Bayes' rule is used to make inferences about the relationship between the two injury categories, and to consistently estimate injury risk. The article concludes with a discussion of the problem of risk awareness and some policy implications.
Driving all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) has been an enjoyable leisure actMty for many Americans. ATVs are three-and four-wheeled motorized vehicles that are intended for off-road use on various types of non-paved terrain. 1 Concern about the safety of ATVs grew during the 1980s as the level of injuries rose. In 1985, for example, there were about 85,900 ATV-related injuries requiring hospital emergency-room medical treatment out of a population of approximately 3,500,000 drivers (a 2% injury rate). 2 In that same year 250 individuals were identified explicitly as being killed in ATV accidents. 3
The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) initiated a regulatory proceeding in 1985 to evaluate the hazards of ATV use, and to determine what, if any, regulatory actions should be taken. A lawsuit was eventually filed through the Department of Justice against the major ATV manufacturers (and distributors). 4 The government's complaint alleged that although ATVs appear to be relatively safe to drive, they are actually complex machines that require a high degree of skill for safe operation. The result, according to the CPSC, has been a relatively high risk of injury to ATV users, especially those who are young and inexperienced.