Estimation of the contact rate in a seasonal SEIR model: application to chickenpox incidence in France

✍ Scribed by Séverine Deguen; Guy Thomas; Nguyen Phong Chau

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 2000
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 146 KB
• Volume: 19
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0277-6715
• DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20000515)19:9<1207::aid-sim423>3.0.co;2-l

✦ Synopsis

This work was an attempt at analysing the seasonal pattern of varicella epidemics in France by "tting a susceptibles}exposed}infectives}recovered (SEIR) model with a periodic contact rate function to weekly chickenpox incidence data collected over the period 1991 to 1996. The contact rate was assumed to be either a continuous, or a piecewise constant, periodic function. Both assumptions gave a reasonable "t to the data and yielded estimates of the incubation and infectious periods that were consistent with values derived on clinical or serological grounds. Seasonal #uctuation of the estimated contact rate function was likely to re#ect the impact of school holidays on chickenpox di!usion among schoolchildren.