Estimation and prediction under structural instability: The case of the U.S. pulp and paper market

✍ Scribed by Anders Baudin; Serge Nadeau; Anders Westlund

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 1984
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 891 KB
• Volume: 3
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0277-6693
• DOI: 10.1002/for.3980030108

✦ Synopsis

The objectives of this paper are: first, to show empirically the relevance of using adaptive estimation techniques over more traditional estimation approaches when economic systems are believed to be structurally unstable over time; and secondly, to compare in an empirical framework two adaptive estimation techniques: Kalman filtering and the Carbone-Longini filter. For thai purpose, an econometric model for the U.S. pulp and paper market is examined under the assumption of structural instability and, hence, constitutes the basis for comparing forecasting performances and estimation accuracy achieved by each technique. A version of Kalman filtering, modified in line with the basic idea of 'tracking' characterizing the Carbone-Longini filter, is also presented and applied. The analysis of the results shows that it may be worth using adapative estimation methods to estimate structurally unstable models, even if there is no prior knowledge about the patterns of variation of the parameters. Also, it shows the Carbone-Longini filter and Kalman filtering as being complementary estimation techniques. An estimation/forecasting methodology involving a sequential application mode of these two techniques is suggested.