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Estimating the probability that a simulated system will be the best

✍ Scribed by J.O. Miller; Barry L. Nelson; Charles H. Reilly


Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2002
Tongue
English
Weight
253 KB
Volume
49
Category
Article
ISSN
0894-069X

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We presented people with trended and untrended time series and asked them to estimate the probability that the next point would be below each of seven different reference values. The true probabilities that the point would be below these values were 0.01, 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.90 and 0.99. Peopl